Goldman Sachs: Expects the Trump administration to raise the basic tariff rate to 15%.

Jin10 data July 23 - Goldman Sachs’ chief economist for the U.S., David Mericle, expects that the basic “equivalent” tariff rate in the U.S. will increase from 10% to 15%, with tariffs on copper and key minerals reaching 50% - a move that could exacerbate inflationary pressures and suppress economic growth. To reflect the new tariff assumptions and incorporate the impact of import tariffs in its “initial observations,” Goldman Sachs has simultaneously adjusted its forecasts for U.S. inflation and GDP growth. Goldman Sachs has lowered its 2025 core inflation forecast from 3.4% to 3.3%, raised its 2026 forecast from 2.6% to 2.7%, and raised its 2027 forecast from 2.0% to 2.4%. Mericle stated that tariffs are expected to cumulatively push up core prices by 1.7% over 2-3 years. He added that tariffs will reduce this year’s GDP growth by 1 percentage point, by 0.4 percentage points in 2026, and by 0.3 percentage points in 2027. Accordingly, Goldman Sachs has lowered its 2025 GDP growth forecast to 1%.