XRP ETF is about to be approved! Experts call out a target price of 25 USD, the largest CEX inventory in the US has experienced a big dump of 90%.

October 2025 will become a key turning point in the history of Ripple (XRP), as the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) faces the final deadline for multiple XRP ETF applications, and the market is brewing an unprecedented “supply shock.” Analysts warn that exchange XRP inventory has dropped to historic lows, with XRP reserves at the largest CEX in the U.S. plummeting nearly 90% in recent months, leaving only about 100 million coins. As institutional investors rush in to purchase the underlying assets required for the ETF, the price of XRP could surge to astonishing levels due to supply shortages. This article delves into the market dynamics post-ETF approval, forecasts of institutional capital inflows, and the multiple catalysts that could drive XRP's price to break historical highs.

exchange XRP inventory is in urgent crisis: supply crisis is imminent

The cryptocurrency market is facing a little-known but extremely important phenomenon: the XRP inventories of major exchanges are rapidly depleting. This trend is particularly notable on the eve of the ETF approval.

According to the latest data, the XRP inventory of the largest CEX in the United States has fallen from around 1 billion coins a few months ago to only about 100 million coins currently, a decrease of nearly 90%. This astonishing reduction reflects market participants' expectations for the upcoming ETF approval.

Other major exchanges have also reported a similar trend of inventory decline, indicating that XRP is flowing from trading platforms to private wallets, which is often seen as a signal for long-term holding.

Unlike other mainstream cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin and Ethereum, XRP holders exhibit a unique behavior pattern:

Most retail investors hold XRP for the long term rather than actively trading.

· Holders typically store tokens in private wallets rather than on exchanges.

Many investors bought at various price points between $0.20 and $3, creating a diversified cost basis.

This holding model leads to a limited supply of tradable XRP in the market, creating conditions for a potential “supply shock.”

ETF Approval: A Turning Point for the XRP Market

October is a key month for XRP ETF applications, as the SEC faces deadlines for final decisions on multiple applications. Market analysts generally expect that at least some applications will be approved, which could fundamentally change the market dynamics for XRP.

The core feature of a spot ETF is that it must hold actual assets corresponding to the issued shares. For the XRP ETF, this means:

Direct market purchase: ETF issuers must purchase actual XRP tokens from the market.

Continuous accumulation: As investors buy ETF shares, issuers need to continuously increase their XRP holdings.

Limited supply competition: multiple ETF issuers will compete to acquire XRP from an already limited market.

This mechanism may lead to a significant increase in demand for XRP, especially when the exchange inventory is already at a historic low.

Institutional Fund Inflow Forecast: Far Exceeds Bitcoin ETF

Market expert Jake Claver has made a shocking prediction: the XRP ETF could attract between 5 billion to 8 billion dollars in capital inflow within the first 30 days of its launch, a figure that far exceeds the levels seen when the Bitcoin ETF was launched.

· Why XRP ETF May Surpass Bitcoin ETF?

Regulatory clarity: After a long legal battle with the SEC, XRP now has a clearer regulatory status than many other cryptocurrencies.

Institutional demand backlog: Due to past regulatory uncertainties, many institutional investors have been waiting for suitable investment tools.

Cross-border payment potential: Ripple's real-world use cases have sparked widespread interest among financial institutions.

Supply structure: The limited circulating supply of XRP makes it more sensitive to large inflows of capital.

This unprecedented influx of capital, combined with the already tight supply situation, could have an explosive impact on the price of XRP.

Price Prediction: How High Could XRP Go Due to Supply Shocks?

Analysts have presented a compelling point: due to the steadfast holding attitude of retail investors, institutional investors may need to pay a premium far above the current market price to persuade holders to sell their XRP.

· Key Price Threshold

According to market analysis, many XRP holders have set the following psychological price thresholds:

10 USD: Early investors may start to take small profits.

25 USD: More long-term holders may consider partial sell-off

Above $50: May trigger broader profit-taking

These price levels are far above the current trading price of XRP, indicating that under institutional demand, the price may experience an exponential increase.

· Technical Analysis Support

From a technical perspective, the long-term chart of XRP shows multiple bullish signals:

Long-term accumulation pattern: the price forms a solid foundation in the 2-3 dollar range.

Volume Indicator: Institutional-level trading activity is on the rise.

Relative Strength Index (RSI): Not yet reached overbought levels, leaving room for an upward move.

These technical factors combined with fundamental catalysts provide support for a potential explosion in the price of XRP.

Beyond ETF: Multiple Catalysts Driving XRP Growth

Although the approval of the ETF is the most watched catalyst, the value proposition of XRP goes far beyond that. Multiple parallel developments are adding substantial value to the XRP ecosystem.

· Global Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC) Pilot

Multiple countries are exploring the use of XRP ledger technology for CBDC pilot programs:

Palau: Testing a digital dollar based on the XRP ledger.

Montenegro: Exploring XRP as a Cross-Border Payment Solution

Brazil: Evaluating the application of XRP in financial infrastructure

These national-level projects provide real-world use cases and institutional recognition for XRP.

· Ripple's stablecoin plan

Ripple is actively developing stablecoin solutions, which could become an important component of the XRP ecosystem:

USDR: A USD stablecoin developed in collaboration with major financial institutions.

Cross-border stablecoin: A multi-currency stablecoin solution designed for international payments.

Institutional-grade stablecoin: high-security stablecoin aimed at interbank settlements

These stablecoin plans may significantly increase the usage and value of the XRP ledger.

· Corporate Adoption Acceleration

More and more companies are exploring the incorporation of XRP into their financial strategies:

Capital allocation: Some companies are considering using XRP as part of their balance sheet.

Payment Infrastructure: E-commerce and fintech companies adopt XRP for cross-border payments.

Liquidity solutions: Financial institutions use XRP as a bridge currency.

This type of enterprise adopting trends may create sustained institutional demand for XRP.

Market Psychology: The Dual Effect of FOMO

The approval of the ETF may trigger a rare “double FOMO” (fear of missing out) effect, affecting both retail and institutional investors.

1. Institutional FOMO

Institutional investors may be eager to enter the XRP market for the following reasons:

· Worried about missing the first-mover advantage of early ETF issuance.

· Competitive pressure forces asset management companies to offer XRP exposure

· Concerns about missing potential price increases

2. Retail Investor FOMO

Retail investors may accelerate their buying due to the following factors:

· Market confidence brought by ETF approval

· Extensive media coverage of institutional adoption

· The momentum created by price increase

This dual FOMO effect may further exacerbate supply shortages, driving prices to spiral upwards.

Investment Strategy: How to Prepare for XRP ETF Approval

As the October ETF decision approaches, investors may consider the following strategies:

1. Build positions in batches

Consider building a position in XRP in batches before the ETF approval to avoid potential price spikes that may occur after the news is announced.

2. Set Target Price

Based on individual risk tolerance and investment goals, pre-determine target prices for taking profits, such as $10, $25, or higher levels.

3. Pay attention to regulatory dynamics

Pay close attention to the SEC's statements and decision timelines to timely adjust investment strategies.

4. Diversification

Although the outlook for XRP is promising, it is still important to maintain diversification in your investment portfolio to manage risk.

Conclusion: Critical Point of Historical Opportunity

October 2025 could become a key turning point in the history of XRP. The approval of the ETF combined with exchange inventory depletion, retail investors holding firm, and multiple utility catalysts creates a potential “perfect storm” that could drive the price of XRP to unprecedented heights.

Although any investment comes with risks, the current market structure suggests that XRP may be at a unique point of supply and demand imbalance. As institutional funds seek to enter this already tight supply market, prices may need to rise significantly to persuade existing holders to release their tokens.

Regardless of the final outcome, the ETF decision in October will undoubtedly become an important milestone in the development of XRP, potentially bringing fundamental changes to its position in the global financial system.