Today's XRP news: Countdown to ETF approval in October, traders closely watching the $3 key resistance level.

As the deadline for the SEC's approval of the XRP Spot ETF approaches in October, market sentiment is high, and traders are closely following whether Ripple (XRP) can break through the psychological barrier of $3. Polymarket data shows that the probability of XRP ETF approval has skyrocketed from 64.6% in August to an astonishing 99%. Will this become the key catalyst for XRP's price breakout?

October, the Month of Destiny: XRP ETF Approval Countdown Begins

XRP investors are about to face a critical three weeks. The final deadline for six XRP Spot ETF issuers (including 21Shares, Bitwise, Canary Capital, CoinShares, Grayscale, and WisdomTree) is set for October 2025, while Franklin Templeton's application will face a final decision on November 14.

The final approval deadline for the Grayscale XRP ETF is set for October 18, a date that could be particularly significant. Market analysts point out that the SEC is likely to follow the approach taken with Bitcoin ETFs, approving all applications on the same day to avoid first-mover advantage. This means that all seven XRP ETFs could be approved for listing simultaneously on October 18 or 19.

Market confidence reaches a new high

Polymarket's data shows that the probability of XRP ETF being approved by the end of 2025 has reached 99%, a significant increase from 64.6% in early August. This surge in confidence is mainly due to the following factors:

1. The successful launch of the REX-Osprey XRP ETF: The product attracted a net inflow of $15 million on its first trading day.

2. The court ruled that XRP is not a security: The partial resolution of the SEC vs. Ripple case has cleared legal obstacles for ETF approval.

3. The General Listing Standard (GLS) for Commodity Trust Shares has been approved: opening the door for more cryptocurrency ETF products.

Bloomberg industry research senior ETF analyst Eric Balchunas commented on the first-day performance of the REX-Osprey XRP ETF and Grayscale Digital Large Cap ETF, saying: “Both exceeded the average ETF issuance volume, although they lag far behind Bitcoin. However, if you are one of those issuers, you should still be happy about it.”

Big Players Entering? BlackRock and Vanguard Group Become Key Variables

The biggest concern in the market right now is whether ETF giant BlackRock will join the XRP ETF competition. As the absolute leader in the Bitcoin and Ethereum ETF markets, BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) and iShares Ethereum Trust (ETHA) have already dominated the cryptocurrency ETF market.

If BlackRock launches the iShares XRP Trust, it could have a significant pump on the price of XRP. Looking back to August of this year, Bitcoin and Ethereum reached all-time highs of $123,731 and $4,958 respectively, driven by ETF demand, and this precedent undoubtedly brings confidence to XRP investors.

Another potential variable is the shift in attitude of Vanguard, the world's second-largest ETF issuer. The company has previously maintained a conservative stance on cryptocurrencies, but market rumors suggest it may adjust its policy to allow investors to invest in cryptocurrency ETFs and may even launch its own products to compete with BlackRock.

“If both BlackRock and Vanguard, the ETF giants, enter the XRP market at the same time, it will bring unprecedented institutional capital inflow to XRP,” said a cryptocurrency analyst, “This could be the key driver for XRP to break historical highs.”

Technical Analysis: $3 is the Key Battlefield

(Source: Trading View)

As of September 27, the price of XRP has pumped by 0.75%, closing at 2.8075 USD, outperforming the market. From a technical perspective, XRP is facing the following key price levels:

Support level:

2.7 USD (short-term key support)

2.5 USD (secondary support)

Resistance level:

3 dollars (psychological barrier)

3.2 USD (mid-term resistance)

3.335 USD (strong resistance)

3.66 USD (historical high price)

Technical analysts point out that the XRP daily chart is showing some bearish signals recently, but the strong fundamentals may overshadow the technical weaknesses. The market is at a critical decision point: will it break through the 3 dollar resistance or fall back to the 2.7 dollar support?

Multiple catalysts will determine the trend of XRP

In addition to ETF approval, the following factors will also affect the short-term and long-term trend of XRP:

· Bullish Catalyst

Institutional fund inflows: BITW, GDLC, and XRPR report strong capital inflows.

ETF giants enter the arena: BlackRock and Vanguard Group list and trade XRP Spot ETF

Corporate Adoption: Blue-chip companies are incorporating XRP into their treasury reserve assets.

Regulatory Breakthrough: Ripple Obtains U.S. Chartered Bank License

Legislative Progress: The U.S. Senate Passes the Market Structure Bill

Market share expansion: Ripple is capturing SWIFT's share in the global remittance market.

If these catalysts come true, XRP is expected to break through 3 dollars and then challenge 3.2 dollars or even higher levels.

· Bearish Risk

Insufficient capital inflow: The attractiveness of the ETF product is below expectations.

Giants Abandon: BlackRock and Vanguard Group Abandon XRP ETF Plans

Regulatory Resistance: OCC Delays or Rejects Ripple's Bank License Application

Competitive Pressure: SWIFT Successfully Defends Its Dominance in the Global Remittance Field

These adverse factors may cause XRP to break below the $2.7 support level and even test the $2.5 level.

Conclusion: October Decisive Moment

As the ETF decision date in October approaches, XRP is standing at a historical crossroads. The approval of the ETF will bring unprecedented institutional funds and market recognition to XRP, but the true long-term value will depend on the practical application of Ripple technology and the development of the regulatory environment.

Whether it breaks through 3 dollars or falls back to support levels, the coming weeks will be a crucial period for XRP investors not to miss. Market analysts advise investors to closely follow the progress of ETF applications, institutional fund flows, and regulatory dynamics, to be prepared for potential price fluctuations.