Analyst: Bitcoin and the S&P 500 index are still in the late stage of the bull run.

According to a report by Jinse Finance, Cryptoquant analyst Axel Adler Jr. released a market analysis indicating that Bitcoin and the S&P 500 index are currently both in the late stage of a bull run. Among them, the S&P 500 index has achieved a return of 13% over the past 52 weeks, indicating that the market is still in a risk-on mode—during this stage, investors are optimistic about the economic outlook and are more inclined to allocate to stocks, Crypto Assets, and other risk assets in pursuit of higher returns. From the perspective of asset correlation, Bitcoin has a correlation of 0.26 with the S&P 500 index, showing a mild positive correlation: this means that the trend of Bitcoin tends to move in the same direction as the overall stock market, but it does not completely rely on the fluctuations of the stock market. It is worth noting that the S&P 500 index remains highly sensitive to changes in the macro economy and political statements. If the sentiment in the traditional financial market cools, it may quickly transmit to the Bitcoin market. In the fourth quarter of 2025, market focus will shift to corporate earnings performance. After two years of yield growth, investors are paying more attention to the verification of actual earnings data. The current earnings season for the third quarter of 2025 is in full swing, with all 58 companies that have disclosed their performance exceeding expectations, with an average exceedance of 571 basis points. The market's overall earnings growth expectation has also been raised from 7% to 8%—this is a typical characteristic of the end of a bull run cycle. From a broader market perspective, 85% of the companies in the S&P 500 have reported earnings that exceeded expectations, setting the highest proportion since 2021, and the strong performance provides critical support for the late-stage bull market.