Opinion: The Iran conflict this time has a detrimental impact on oil prices but is not an upheaval, and is unlikely to trigger an oil crisis.

ChainCatcher News reports that Bloomberg columnist and energy and commodities author Javier Blas wrote that the Iran attack has a severe impact on oil prices but is not an shock.

Blas’s article states that the market’s biggest concern is whether both sides will target energy infrastructure and the forced closure of oil tanker routes. Neither has happened yet. Not at this point. Although there are fears that Iran might set fire to Middle Eastern energy facilities, targeting oil fields, refineries, and export terminals, Tehran has not yet turned oil into a weapon. Israel and the U.S. have also not targeted Iran’s oil infrastructure.

Analysts say oil prices could surge, but even the most bullish traders are talking about prices possibly reaching $100 per barrel, well below the $139 per barrel seen after the Russia-Ukraine conflict in 2022 and the record $147.50 per barrel in 2008. From a broad perspective, this Middle East incident is unlikely to trigger an oil shock.

Additionally, although physical markets have remained weak, financial oil markets have been bullish, with traders rushing to buy oil in anticipation of higher prices. A year ago, the Israel-U.S. conflict with Iran on the 12th caught many traders off guard, sparking a wave of buying that sent crude prices soaring. This time, the number of bullish positions is among the highest in the past decade. Therefore, oil traders are better prepared to absorb this crisis.