Strategist: Even if France forms a coalition government, the euro will not have much rise space.

July 8th, Jinshi data, Joachim Klement, a strategist at Liberum: The export polls show that the left-green coalition has achieved a shocking victory. However, the coalition will not be able to obtain an absolute majority and may need to reach an agreement with Macron’s Renaissance party or even formally ally to form a government. On the one hand, this is beneficial for France and the EU, because Macron can govern from a centrist position and will need to make fewer compromises compared to the National Union government. On the other hand, we should not forget that the leader of the left-green coalition, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, is as skeptical of the euro as Marine Le Pen. This result should be marginally Favourable Information for the euro and the French stock market. However, we do not expect a significant rise, as the French government will be divided into two camps, and these camps do not always have consistent opinions.