Bitcoin Analysis: Will the $108,000 Price Surge Return?

Bitcoin is currently facing clear warning signs from both technical and institutional money flow perspectives. Although there are some reversal trend signaling patterns, selling pressure continues to increase, making investors cautious.

1. General Market Situation Crypto Fear and Greed Index: This index is currently at 35, indicating that the market is in a state of skepticism and fear. This is one of the warning signs that investor sentiment is shifting towards negativity. Bitcoin price volatility: In the past 24 hours, Bitcoin has decreased by 1.08%, valued at about $97,000. This decrease has raised further concerns about the downward trend of the leading cryptocurrency.
2. Technical Analysis (Dynamic Average Line )EMA(: Bitcoin is trading between the 50-day EMA and 100-day EMA, indicating a consolidation phase in the market. The small difference between the EMAs has made traders hesitant, unsure of the direction the trend will continue. MACD and Signal indicators: After the recent correction, both the MACD line and the signal line indicate a downward trend, increasing selling pressure in the market. Morning Star pattern: Although the Morning Star candlestick pattern - which is often seen as a reversal signal from a downtrend to an uptrend - has appeared, it is accompanied by signs of a slowdown in support from institutional investors. This may limit the strength of the short-term recovery. )Ascending Triangle(: Another important technical factor is the ascending triangle pattern formed by the local support trend line and the resistance level near $106,000. If Bitcoin can maintain this support level, the possibility of a short-term price surge of up to nearly 10% is entirely feasible. Conversely, if buying pressure is not strong enough to sustain this support area, the price may continue to decline. Important support level: Currently, Bitcoin is supported at $91,000. A close below this level could be a sign of the start of a deeper selloff wave, opening up the risk of sharp price declines in the future.
3. Money Flow From ETFs and Organizational Psychology Daily cash flow: On February 6, the Bitcoin spot ETF funds in the US showed negative net flows, indicating that even institutional investors are not entirely optimistic about the short-term price increase. Notable investors: Grayscale BTC Mini Trust: Had a positive net flow of about $5.15 million, indicating that a small number of investors still believe in the prospects of Bitcoin. Fidelity and Grayscale BTC Trust: These two funds recorded significant sell-offs, with $103.25 million and $42.21 million respectively, indicating increasing selling pressure from large institutions. Effect from BlackRock: With total net assets of $56.252 billion, BlackRock showed a neutral position with ) net flows, not clearly affirming any trend in a volatile market context. Selling pressure from Grayscale BTC Trust: It is worth noting that Grayscale BTC Trust has suffered a loss of approximately $21.91 billion, reflecting strong selling pressure from institutional investors and may signal a continuation of the downward trend.
4. Conclusion: Prospects and Risks Although the Morning Star pattern and the ascending triangle pattern may indicate signs of a reversal and short-term recovery, other technical factors such as the MACD indicator, the important support level below $91,000, and the institutional money flow leaning towards selling all suggest increased risk. If Bitcoin can hold the important support level at $91,000( and break the resistance level at $106,000, there is a possibility of a short-term price increase, even pushing the price near $108,000 with an increase of about 10%. This could be an opportunity for risk-taking investors, but it also carries high risks if buying momentum doesn’t continue. On the contrary, if selling pressure continues to increase and the price closes below $91,000, we may witness a deeper price decline, causing a pessimistic market situation and requiring investors to adjust their strategies. In the context of the unstable market and the inconsistent technical indicators and institutional money flow, investors should be cautious, pay close attention to support and resistance levels, as well as the fluctuations of the money flow to make accurate investment decisions.