If disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz persist, agricultural commodities could indeed be on the verge of a significant rally～

Many people are focused on oil, but oil is merely the trigger. Once energy prices spike, fertilizer, transportation, and storage costs all rise across the board, lifting agricultural costs as a whole. This is a textbook example of "cost-push bull market." The 2022 cycle was essentially driven by the dual resonance of energy and geopolitical factors～

From a cyclical perspective, agricultural commodities typically lag behind energy rallies, but once the trend is confirmed, the move tends to be more sustained. Using wave theory, the current setup looks more like the eve of transitioning from the initial stage into the main uptrend, rather than the end of the move～

But there's one key point to watch: this kind of rally doesn't move in a straight line—it advances while shaking out weak hands.

So the conclusion is straightforward——

If the strait issue turns into a "continuing saga," agricultural commodities will likely launch their own "long story arc" as well～