ChatGPT Bitcoin price prediction: Gold evaporates 1.28 trillion, BTC surges to 114,000 USD?

ChatGPT analysis shows that Bitcoin has rebounded 6.7% from a low of $105,191 to $112,259, testing the key $114,000 resistance level, as $1.28 trillion has been wiped off the gold market capitalization, triggering a rotation in speculation. Bitcoin price predictions indicate that if it breaks through $114,000, the target will be $116,000 to $118,000.

Technical Analysis: 200-Day EMA Successfully Defends Key Resistance Test

(Source: Trading View)

Bitcoin is currently priced at $112,259, up 1.56% from the low of $105,191 on October 17, rebounding 6.7%. ChatGPT's technical analysis incorporates over 28 indicators, showing that Bitcoin is at a critical turning point. On the daily chart, the coin has successfully held the 200-day moving average of $108,108, which is an important technical support level. Historically, the defense of the 200-day EMA has a 60% recovery success rate, providing a statistical basis for the bullish narrative.

The structure of the moving average lines shows a tug-of-war situation between bulls and bears. The trading price of Bitcoin is slightly below the 20-day EMA ($113,890, +1.5%) and the 50-day EMA ($113,984, +1.5%), but above the 100-day EMA ($112,944, +0.6%) and the 200-day EMA ($108,108, -3.78%). This “sandwich” state indicates that the short-term moving averages are forming resistance, while the long-term moving averages provide support. The price needs to break upward to confirm a trend reversal.

Key Technical Indicator Interpretation:

RSI 44.70: Below the neutral level of 50, indicating a bearish divergence. Despite a price increase of 6.7%, the RSI remains below the previous high of 52.18, suggesting insufficient upward momentum.

MACD -660.92: Bearish, but the histogram is at -1,110.67, indicating a possible bottom. The convergence of the histogram suggests a potential trend reversal.

ATR 105,074.42: Extremely high value confirms volatility is severe, providing opportunities for short-term traders but also increasing risk.

The key resistance level of $113,890 to $114,000 must be broken to continue the upward trend. This range is a concentration zone of the 20-day and 50-day EMA, and a breakout requires strong volume support. However, the rebound volume is low (238,800 vs 292,400), indicating a lack of confidence. ChatGPT's Bitcoin price prediction emphasizes that without volume expanding to over 30K BTC and the RSI recovering to 50, the sustainability of the breakout is in doubt.

In terms of support levels, 110,000 USD is a psychological barrier, with the key support level at 108,108 USD (200-day moving average). If it falls below 110,000 USD, it faces the risk of a retest between 105,000 USD and 108,000 USD. The historical lows of 2025 hover between 104,031 USD (January), 81,976 USD (February), and 122,419 USD (October peak), providing a reference framework for Bitcoin price predictions.

Gold crash triggers market rotation, where will the $1.28 trillion flow?

(Source: Trading View)

Today, the price of gold evaporated 1.28 trillion dollars in a historic pullback. The community emphasizes, “Gold sell-off = BTC surge, liquidity rotation starts now.” Binance founder CZ pointed out, “Gold won't drop to zero, but Bitcoin performs better,” and analysts predict “the rotation from gold to BTC will be very spectacular.”

This rotation logic is based on historical patterns. Analysts point out that “when gold peaked in August 2020, the price of BTC skyrocketed from $10,000 to $60,000. Now, the situation is similar: gold prices are high, and BTC prices are oversold.” If BTC reaches 10.7% of gold's $30 trillion market capitalization, then “1 BTC = $161,000.” ChatGPT's Bitcoin price prediction adopts this target, noting that in the previous cycle, Bitcoin's market capitalization reached $1.3 trillion, corresponding to 10.7% of gold.

However, the rotation between gold and Bitcoin is not a linear relationship. Both are competitive safe-haven assets at certain stages, but at other stages, they are independent of different macro factors. The decline in gold may stem from a stronger dollar, rising real interest rates, or a geopolitical easing, and these factors do not have a consistent impact on Bitcoin. Therefore, although the outflow of $1.28 trillion from gold has created a rotation narrative, how much actually flows into Bitcoin still needs to be observed through the capital flow data.

Institutional movements have provided some clues. BlackRock today purchased $62.75 million in BTC, as “Bitcoin giants have quietly embraced BlackRock's ETF following the SEC rule changes.” This continued institutional buying provides bottom support for Bitcoin prices. However, ETF fund flows are mixed, with “$145 million in Ethereum outflows and $40 million in Bitcoin outflows,” indicating that institutional sentiment remains cautious in the short term.

Double Pressure from Whale Shorts and SpaceX Sell-off

Inside whales opened a short position of 235 million USD in BTC, closing at a price of 123,270 USD, with an increase of 100 million USD in the past hour, currently facing a loss of 3.5 million USD. This large-scale short position indicates that professional traders are skeptical about a short-term price increase. The whales' closing price at 123,270 USD means that if Bitcoin breaks this level, it will trigger short covering, potentially creating a short-term squeeze.

Market data shows that “if BTC rises by 10%, then $12 billion in short positions will be liquidated,” while “if BTC falls by 10%, then $6.98 billion in long positions will be liquidated.” This asymmetric liquidation structure suggests that market leverage is biased towards shorts, and once the price breaks upward, the pressure on shorts may be even greater.

SpaceX transferred $257 million worth of Bitcoin, raising questions about its cryptocurrency strategy once again. This is SpaceX's second large-scale on-chain transfer in recent times, and although the company has not publicly stated whether it has sold, historically, such transfers are often associated with sell-offs. If SpaceX is indeed selling $257 million worth of BTC in the market, it will create pressure on short-term prices.

The Federal Reserve will hold a cryptocurrency payment conference today to discuss the “streamlining” of payment accounts for fintech and crypto companies. This regulatory progress provides positive support for long-term Bitcoin price forecasts, but has limited direct impact on prices in the short term.

ChatGPT Three-Month Bitcoin Price Prediction Three Scenarios

ChatGPT's BTC analysis shows that Bitcoin is at a critical turning point between golden rotation and technical resistance. Three scenarios may arise within three months:

Golden Rotation Scenario (Probability 45%)

(Source: Trading View)

Breakthrough 114,000 USD, with trading volume driving the price up to 118,000 to 120,000 USD (upside potential 5-7%), then to 128,000 to 132,000 USD (upside potential 14-18%). Requires RSI above 50, and trading volume expanding to over 30K BTC. Long-term target points to 161,000 USD (gold market capitalization 10.7%).

This scenario is based on historical rotation patterns and accelerated institutional adoption. Analysts emphasize: “Bitcoin reached a peak of 1.3 trillion dollars in the last cycle, which is equivalent to 10.7% of gold. With favorable regulations, institutional support, ETFs, and backing from nation-states, the conservative target for this cycle is 161,000 dollars.” The community points out that “now every exchange is buying Bitcoin, even the largest seller Binance has turned into a buyer of Bitcoin.”

Reject Re-testing Scenario (Probability 40%)

(Source: Trading View)

The breakdown of 114,000 USD will trigger a retest of 108,000 to 110,000 USD (a decline of 3% to 4%) and may further drop to 105,000 USD. Weak trading volume and a bearish divergence in the RSI support this trend. If the 200-day EMA at 108,108 USD is lost, deeper support levels of 104,000 USD or even the year-to-date low of 82,000 USD may be tested.

Merging Scenario (Probability 15%)

(Source: Trading View)

The range of 110,000 to 114,000 USD allows for gold rotation and institutional accumulation. This consolidation may last for several weeks, waiting for clearer catalysts or changes in the macro environment.

Bitcoin's market capitalization remains at $2.23 trillion (+1.37%). Trading volume surged by 44.41%, reaching $89.37 billion, accounting for 3.65%. The market share is 58.9% (-0.05%). In terms of social sentiment, LunarCrush's AltRank is 282 (+240), and the Galaxy Score is 56 (+3). Interaction volume soared to 121.27 million (+15.73 million), mention volume is 317.4 thousand (+4.405 million), and the positive rating is 77% (+1%).