"Uptober" may fall short? Bitcoin has fallen 4% compared to historical averages, on-chain data reveals that the correction is not over.

Bitcoin (BTC) has performed poorly this month, having fallen 4% so far, in stark contrast to the historical average return of 19.84% in October, leading to the premature disappointment of expectations for the “Uptober” bull run. Julio Moreno, the research director at the on-chain analysis platform CryptoQuant, stated that nearly all on-chain indicators point to the market still being in a correction phase, with price action lacking constructive elements. Macroeconomic pressures and the brutal dumping triggered earlier by the US-China trade war have created a cautious market sentiment, with institutional optimism coexisting with macro risks, and high volatility is likely to persist in the short term.

Uptober Expectations Missed: Bitcoin Price Action Continues to Lag

The performance of the cryptocurrency market in October was far below historical expectations, especially compared to traditional stock markets, where the recovery of crypto assets has been noticeably lagging.

· Deviation from Historical Average: According to CoinGlass data, Bitcoin is currently down 4% in October, far below the historical average return rate of 19.84% for this month. Meanwhile, Ethereum is down 5%, while major altcoins like Solana have seen double-digit declines, indicating a general withdrawal of speculative capital.

· Macroeconomic Pressure and Dumping Although Bitcoin soared from $115,000 to a record high of $126,200 in the first week of October, macroeconomic pressures and the earlier US-China trade war triggered a brutal dumping. Notably, the S&P 500 index has fully recovered its earlier losses and is approaching historical highs, making crypto assets appear particularly lagging.

On-chain Signals and Technical Analysis: The Market is Still in a Correction and Accumulation Phase

On-chain data and price trends both suggest that the market has not fully emerged from the correction period, lacking a clear bullish structure.

· Correction Cycle Confirmation: CryptoQuant Research Director Julio Moreno clearly stated that Uptober is temporarily in a “cancelled” state, as all on-chain indicators suggest the market is still in a correction phase. · Key Technical Levels The price of Bitcoin is currently nearly 12% lower than the peak of $122,500 on October 10, and is only slightly above the 200-day simple moving average (a widely used bull-bear trend measure) by less than 1%.

· Failed rebound: This week, multiple attempts to break through the 113,000 USD level have failed. On Tuesday (the original publication date), Bitcoin had accelerated an increase of nearly 5% during the early trading hours in New York, but within the next eight hours, all gains were erased, and the price fell back to around 108,400 USD.

Market Sentiment Rips Apart: The Game Between Institutional Optimism and Global Liquidity Tightening

The severe intraday Fluctuation in the market reflects cautious trading sentiment, with investors caught between the optimism of institutional adoption and the pessimism of macro risks.

· Liquidity and Confidence The co-founder and COO of the cryptocurrency derivatives platform SynFutures, Wenny Cai, stated that the significant intraday Fluctuation reflects the cautious sentiment in the market, and investors have not yet recovered from the historic liquidation on October 10, needing time to reposition.

· Macro risks remain Although the Federal Reserve (Fed) has decided to end quantitative tightening and is expected to lower interest rates, macroeconomic uncertainty and the spillover effects of the China-US tariff war still pose the greatest risks to the cryptocurrency market.

· Potential Pressure Point Cai emphasized that if the price continues to fall, it may expose the fragility of the exchange's liquidity and put additional pressure on Bitcoin miners. He concluded, “Until these factors stabilize, fluctuation is likely to remain a major characteristic of this market.”

Conclusion

The lackluster performance of the “October bull run” has brought a realistic warning to the market that macroeconomic headwinds remain the main challenge facing crypto assets. Bitcoin has failed to maintain stability above key technical levels, indicating that short-term consolidation and high volatility will be the norm. Investors need to closely monitor the resolution of macroeconomic uncertainties and the recovery of on-chain liquidity to look for signals of the next trend upward.