Bitcoin ETF saw a net inflow of $477 million in a single day, but "Trump insiders" firmly increased their shorting position to $227 million. Where will BTC go?

After experiencing market volatility triggered by the recent US-China trade tensions and over $1 billion in net outflows, the US spot Bitcoin ETF returned to net inflows on Tuesday, raising a total of $477.2 million, indicating that institutional sentiment may be stabilizing. Meanwhile, the spot Ether ETF also recorded a net inflow of $141.6 million. However, the crypto whale known as “Trump insider” has deepened its Bitcoin short positions to 2,100 BTC (approximately $227 million), suggesting that it expects more turbulence in the market.

ETF Capital Inflow: Institutions Regain Confidence and Trading Volume Surges

The reversal of funds flow in Spot encryption ETF is seen as a positive signal for institutional investors regaining interest in encryption assets amid economic uncertainty.

· Funds Return to Normal: According to SoSoValue data, on Tuesday (the date of the original publication), 9 out of 12 Bitcoin ETFs recorded net inflows. Among them, BlackRock's IBIT led with $210.9 million, followed closely by Ark & 21Shares' ARKB with $162.8 million, and Fidelity's FBTC recorded $34.15 million.

· Ethereum ETF linkage: The spot Ethereum ETF has also warmed up, with a total net inflow of 141.6 million USD. Fidelity's FETH leads with 59 million USD, and funds from BlackRock, Grayscale, and VanEck also reported inflows.

· Trading volume hits a new high: The total trading volume of Bitcoin ETF reached $7.41 billion on Tuesday, consistent with the high trading volume this month. Since October, daily trading volume has fluctuated between $5 billion and $9.78 billion, significantly higher than last month's $2 billion to $4 billion, reflecting a notable increase in institutional participation.

· Nick Ruck, head of LVRG Research, believes that the increase in trading volume indicates a rise in institutional participation, providing deeper liquidity and risk appetite for digital assets as traditional investors seek yield and hedging opportunities.

The Decline of Gold Fuels: Bitcoin Expected to Welcome “Active Catch-Up”

The sharp decline of traditional safe-haven asset gold has prompted some analysts to predict that funds will flow into encryption.

· Gold declines reach record levels, with spot gold prices plummeting 5.9% on Tuesday, marking the largest intraday drop since 2020.

· Seeking Alternative Hedges Ruck believes that the demand for gold has peaked, and investors will seek alternative risk-adjusted opportunities in encryption. This has led some analysts to predict that Bitcoin will see a wave of “aggressive chasing trades.”

Whale's Contrarian Bet: “Trump Insider” Increases Short Positions

At the moment when institutional funds are flowing in, a well-known Whale has taken the completely opposite action, deepening its short positions.

· Short positions expanded: A whale known as “Trump insider” increased its short positions to 2,100 BTC, valued at approximately $227 million, as Bitcoin prices hovered around $108,000.

· Controversy over the timing: This Whale is known for its incredible timing in trading, especially for successfully shorting before former US President Trump announced tariff policies that caused a global market crash, earning it the nickname “Trump insider.”

· Position details: The trader transferred 3,003 BTC (approximately 338 million USD) to a mainstream CEX, possibly to take profits or readjust exposure. He previously opened a short position with 10x leverage at around 111,000 USD, and the current floating profit has reached 5.8 million USD.

· Signaling market turbulence: The recent short positions taken by this Whale occurred after Bitcoin plummeted from above $125,000 to around $102,000 between October 10 and 11. His actions indicate that he expects further fluctuations in the market rather than a quick rebound, and many traders believe that Bitcoin may re-test the $100,000 or lower levels.

Bitcoin Technical Analysis: Key Decision Point in the Converging Channel

(Source: TradingView)

From a technical analysis perspective, the Bitcoin price is currently consolidating within an ascending channel, and the short-term trend faces a critical decision.

· Consolidation and Support: After being rejected at a price of 111,730 USD, Bitcoin is currently consolidating around 107,950 USD within an ascending channel. The recent candlestick's long lower shadow suggests there is buying interest around 107,700 USD (consistent with the lower boundary of the channel).

· Technical Indicators: The 20-period and 50-period Exponential Moving Averages (EMA) are flattening, indicating uncertainty in direction in the short term. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is close to 45, in neutral momentum, and may be forming a bullish divergence.

· Trading strategy suggestion: If BTC can stay above $107,400, it is expected to rebound to $111,700 and $115,900. A drop below this level may expose downside targets of $104,400 and $101,100.

Conclusion

Spot Bitcoin ETF recovering net inflows is a shot in the arm for the encryption market, indicating that the appeal of digital assets as a portfolio diversification tool continues to grow amid increasing macroeconomic uncertainty. However, the Whale represented by “Trump insider” taking a contrarian short positions stance, along with the range oscillation signals in technical indicators, suggest that there are still significant volatility risks in the short term. Bitcoin is at a critical technical breakthrough point, and its trajectory in the fourth quarter will depend on whether it can break through the consolidation range and absorb the pressure from short positions.

Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute any investment advice. The encryption market is highly volatile, and investors should make cautious decisions.