Plan B claims the Bitcoin bull run is not over, and Bitcoin will reach a historical high of 141,000 USD in December?

S2F model creator Plan B stated that the Bitcoin bull run phase has not yet ended, with fundamentals indicating that BTC will continue to rise, and there are no key technical signals suggesting the end of the bull run. TD Cowen predicts that Bitcoin will grow to $141,000 by December. However, the market capitalization of Crypto Assets currently stands at $3.65 trillion, and the Fear and Greed Index has fallen to 25, nearing extreme fear.

Plan B and TD Cowen Confirm Bitcoin Bull Run Continues

(Source: X)

The creator and analyst of the S2F model, Plan B, stated that the Bitcoin bull run phase has not yet ended. The fundamentals indicate that Bitcoin will continue to rise, and there are no key technical signals suggesting the final end of the bull run phase. Plan B is known worldwide for its Stock-to-Flow (S2F) model, which predicts prices based on the scarcity of Bitcoin. Although the S2F model has faced scrutiny after the peak of the bull run in 2021, Plan B remains convinced that the long-term trend is still valid.

BTSE COO Jeff May stated that market volatility will continue. TD Cowen remains optimistic about BTC and predicts that the asset will rise to $141,000 by December. TD Cowen is a well-known investment bank on Wall Street, and its bullish stance on Bitcoin has provided confidence to institutional investors. The target price of $141,000 implies about a 28% rise from the current level of $110,000.

Analyst Willy Woo believes that the next bear market in the crypto assets cycle will be different from the past. It may be triggered by an economic crisis, such as those in 2001 and 2008, which the crypto assets market has yet to experience. This view reminds investors that while the Bitcoin bull run may continue, macroeconomic risks remain the greatest systemic threat. If the global economy falls into recession, even if Bitcoin's technicals and fundamentals are strong, it may still suffer a correlated fall.

The perspectives of these experts support the continuation of the Bitcoin bull run, but also emphasize volatility and risk. In this environment, the “sell the rise” strategy becomes particularly important, as it allows investors to gradually lock in profits while enjoying the gains of the bull market and reducing risk exposure.

Fear and Greed Index 25 and the dual signal of technical pressure

The market capitalization of Crypto Assets has fluctuated slightly over the past day, maintaining at $3.65 trillion, completing a 5% rise and fall, finishing a complete cycle. Smaller Crypto Assets such as Zcash (+6.6%), Dash (+3%), and Tezos (+2.7%) have performed slightly better than the market and have not been affected by the risk appetite fluctuations from large institutions selling off popular Crypto Assets.

Such volatility does not help improve the sentiment of Crypto Assets investors. On the contrary, the corresponding index has fallen to 25, nearing the extreme fear zone. At the current level, the rule of “buy when everyone is afraid” may work, or after three months of stagnation, there may be a more severe sell-off. The fear and greed index of 25 is a key psychological level, which has historically formed short-term bottoms around this level multiple times, but has also further dipped into single digits under extreme conditions.

Bitcoin rose to $114,000 on Tuesday, reaching the 50-day moving average, but this will only stimulate sellers. For the past 11 days, Bitcoin has been hovering between the 50-day and 200-day moving averages. The latter curve is trending upward, reducing the space for free fluctuations, and the moment for the market to choose a direction is getting closer. This technical squeeze structure often appears in Bitcoin bull runs and usually indicates an impending directional breakout.

From a technical analysis perspective, the 50-day moving average is located around 114,000 USD, serving as a watershed for the short-term trend. The 200-day moving average represents the long-term trend, and its upward curve indicates that the long-term trend remains bullish. When prices oscillate narrowly between the two moving averages, it often indicates accumulation of momentum for a breakout. If it breaks above the 50-day moving average and holds, it will open up space towards 120,000 or even 140,000 USD. Conversely, if it falls below the 200-day moving average, it may trigger a deeper correction.

Key Technical Levels of Bitcoin Bull Run Currently:

50-day moving average ($114,000): short-term resistance, breakout confirms trend recovery

200-day moving average (approximately $107,000): long-term support, breaking below will disrupt the bull run structure.

Key Breakthrough Level ($120,000): Once stabilized, it will open a new upward channel.

This technical configuration provides a clear framework for the “sell growth” strategy. Investors can start taking partial profits after the breakthrough of 114,000 USD, continuing to sell in batches at key round numbers such as 120,000, 130,000, and 140,000 USD, rather than waiting for uncertain higher price points.

Selling Growth Strategy: Taking Profits in Phases During the Bitcoin Bull Run

The “Selling into Strength” strategy refers to the gradual selling of part of the position during the process of rising asset prices, locking in profits while retaining a portion of the position to capture more upward potential. This strategy contrasts with “liquidating all at once” or “holding until the top,” providing a balance of risk and reward.

In a Bitcoin bull run, the implementation of a selling growth strategy can refer to the following framework. Suppose an investor buys Bitcoin at $60,000, and the current price of $110,000 has already gained 83%. If a selling growth strategy is adopted, they can sell 20% of their holdings at $110,000 to lock in some profits, sell another 20% at $120,000, sell 20% at $130,000, sell 20% at $140,000, and keep the last 20% for waiting for higher prices or for long-term holding.

The benefits of selling in batches are significant. First, it ensures that investors can actually profit in a bull run, rather than just seeing paper gains. Many investors watched Bitcoin fall from $69,000 to $15,000 during the 2021 bull run but never took profits, ultimately missing the best exit opportunity. Second, selling in batches reduces the psychological pressure of “selling too soon.” If they sold everything at $110,000, but Bitcoin later rose to $150,000, investors would feel extreme regret. However, if they retain some positions, the psychological pressure is greatly reduced.

From a mathematical perspective, assuming an investor buys $100,000 worth of Bitcoin (approximately 1.67 coins) at $60,000, using the above selling growth strategy to sell 20% at $110,000, $120,000, $130,000, and $140,000, the final actual profit would be about 1.8 times the initial investment (not counting the last 20% holding). If Bitcoin continues to rise as predicted by Plan B and TD Cowen, the final 20% holding will provide additional gains. Conversely, if Bitcoin peaks at $120,000 and falls back, the investor has already locked in 60% of the holding profit at a high point.

Selling Growth Strategy's Incremental Profit Framework:

First Batch ($110,000): Sell 20% of holdings to lock in base profits and reduce risk exposure.

Second Batch (120,000 USD): Sell 20% again to ensure substantial profits even if the market reverses.

Third batch (130,000 USD): Continue to sell 20%, with a total of 60% shipped, significantly reducing risk.

Fourth batch ($140,000): Sell 20%, only retain 20% of the holdings as long-term investment or wait for a higher price.

The key to this strategy lies in discipline. Many investors feel greedy when prices rise and are reluctant to sell. However, market history has repeatedly proven that bull runs do not last forever, and taking profits in a timely manner is crucial for long-term success.

SpaceX Transfers $257 Million in Bitcoin: Insights

According to Lookonchain, Elon Musk's company SpaceX has transferred Bitcoin worth $257 million for the first time since July. The company did not disclose the reason for the transfer. According to Arkham, SpaceX holds 5,790 Bitcoins. This transfer has sparked market speculation that it could be for profit-taking, fund management, or other financial needs.

SpaceX's recent action provides an example of the “sell growth” strategy. As an institution holding nearly 6,000 BTC, SpaceX chose to transfer part of its assets when the price of Bitcoin was around $110,000, demonstrating that even institutions with a long-term positive outlook on Bitcoin will engage in liquidity management and profit locking at the appropriate time. $257 million is approximately equivalent to 2,336 BTC (calculated at $110,000), accounting for about 40% of its total holdings.

Transfers of this scale are typically not made on a whim, but are based on financial planning and risk management considerations. SpaceX may require cash for operational expenses, R&D investments, or other strategic projects. This reveals an important principle: even during a Bitcoin bull run, it is necessary to maintain appropriate liquidity and asset allocation balance. Being fully locked into a single asset, while maximizing returns during a bull run, lacks the flexibility to respond to unforeseen demands.

For individual investors, the case of SpaceX offers insights. If institutions choose to take partial profits around $110,000, retail investors should also consider similar actions. Of course, individual risk tolerance and investment goals vary, but the principle of “taking moderate profits at high levels” is generally applicable.

From a market impact perspective, the news that SpaceX transferred 257 million USD in Bitcoin may affect market sentiment in the short term. If the market interprets this as a signal for institutional profit-taking, it could trigger a follow-up sell-off. However, considering that SpaceX still holds over 3,400 Bitcoins, this seems more like asset rebalancing rather than a complete exit. Therefore, long-term investors need not over-interpret this news, but it can serve as a reminder: in a Bitcoin bull run, timely profit-taking is wise and necessary.