XRP News Today: Fed interest rate cut expectations and China-U.S. trade negotiations may trigger a market rebound, with a potential impact on reaching 3 dollars.

XRP is facing a critical moment of technical and fundamental decision-making. The U.S. federal government has entered its 28th day of shutdown, causing the approval process for the XRP Spot ETF to come to a standstill, but the Token price shows strong support around the $2.6 mark. With multiple catalysts approaching, such as the Fed's interest rate decision and U.S.-China trade negotiations, XRP may soon welcome a decisive directional choice. This article will analyze the risk-return characteristics and potential breakout paths in the current market environment.

01 Political Stalemate and Regulatory Delays: The Real Barriers to ETF Approval

The substantial impact of the government shutdown on the SEC's operations.

The U.S. Senate failed again on October 28 to pass the temporary funding bill supported by Republicans, with the final vote tally being 54 to 45, not reaching the required 60-vote threshold to advance. Notably, no new Democrats switched their positions, indicating that the deadlock is unlikely to be resolved in the short term.

The ongoing government shutdown has left the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) with only essential staff on duty, temporarily delaying the approval processes for various items, including the S-1 form for the XRP Spot ETF. The final decision deadlines for six of the seven Spot ETF issuers have already passed, and this regulatory vacuum is severely restricting the channel for institutional funds to enter the XRP market.

Demand signals for existing ETF products

Despite the delay in the approval of pure Spot ETFs, the fund flows of existing related products still provide important demand references. According to ETF.com data, the REX-Osprey XRP ETF (XRPR) has reported a total net inflow of $124.9 million since its launch on September 18, 2025, with fund assets reaching $117.2 million. In contrast, during the same period, the REX-Osprey DOGE ETF (DOJE) only reported a total inflow of $39.7 million.

Although XRPR is not a pure Spot ETF (it gains exposure through investments in XRP ETFs and derivatives), its capital flow can still serve as an effective proxy for institutional demand. This significant difference in capital preference provides an optimistic expectation basis for the future success of a pure Spot ETF.

02 Technical Structure Analysis: The Offensive and Defensive Situation of Key Price Levels

Multi-Timeframe Technical Positioning

XRP fell 1.07% on October 28, closing at $2.6059, continuing the previous day's decline of 0.44%. Despite the short-term adjustment, the Token has successfully held above the 200-day exponential moving average ($2.6123), demonstrating resilience in the long-term trend.

However, XRP is still below the 50-day exponential moving average (2.6852 USD), indicating that the recent bearish bias has not yet fully reversed. This technical situation highlights the importance of the 2.62 USD support level, which has become a key defensive position for bulls. If it can regain stability above the 50-day EMA, it will issue a clear bullish trend reversal signal.

Shape Recognition and Price-Volume Relationship

The recent price trend has shown a typical converging triangle pattern, with volatility continuing to contract, indicating that a significant breakthrough is imminent. The rebound that started from the flash crash low of $0.7773 on October 10 has encountered resistance at $2.6927 (the high on October 27), but each subsequent pullback has seen higher lows, establishing a healthy upward foundation.

The trading volume has shown a shrinking characteristic during the recent consolidation period, which aligns with the typical volume-price relationship during the pattern construction phase. The extent of the increase in trading volume at the time of the breakout will become a key technical indicator to validate the effectiveness of the breakout.

03 Macroeconomic Catalysts: The Resonance of Monetary Policy and Geopolitics

The liquidity impact of the Fed's policy shift

The market generally expects the Fed to cut interest rates by 25 basis points at the meeting on October 29, and again by 25 basis points in December. Unless there is an unexpected decision, Fed Chairman Powell's press conference will be crucial for short-term price trends.

If Powell supports a rate cut in December and signals that inflation has peaked and the labor market is weak, XRP could break out from current levels. Additionally, Powell may hint at a timeline for ending quantitative tightening (QT). Ending QT and cutting rates could boost liquidity and drive demand for risk assets like XRP.

Cryptocurrency investor and analyst Satoshi Stacker commented: “JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs are now both predicting that the Fed will end QT at this week's FOMC meeting. Historically, when the Fed ends the QT phase, BTC and crypto assets enter a significant upward trend due to increased market liquidity.”

Driven by risk appetite in China-U.S. trade negotiations

President Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping held a highly anticipated meeting on October 30, which could be an important catalyst for market volatility. If both parties reach a trade agreement, it could significantly boost risk appetite and create a favorable environment for XRP to break through the psychological barrier of $3.

The rebound from the low of $0.7773 has largely priced in expectations of easing trade tensions. Any details of an agreement that exceed expectations could serve as additional momentum to push prices into a new phase.

04 ETF Outlook Assessment: Delayed but Not Absent Institutional Demand

Industry Experts Expectation Analysis

Nate Geraci, the president of NovaDius Wealth Management, holds an optimistic view on the XRP Spot ETF. He recently stated: “You heard it here first… People are seriously underestimating the demand from investors for Spot XRP and SOL ETFs. It's just like their initial views on Spot BTC and ETH ETFs.”

Geraci reacted to the trading volume of Bitwise's SOL Spot ETF, which was launched on Tuesday, October 28. He stated: “The Bitwise Spot SOL ETF recorded the highest first-day trading volume among approximately 850 ETFs launched this year. Who would have predicted this? The Spot XRP ETF may see a similar response, or even greater.”

Probability assessment of the prediction market

Although the government shutdown has created uncertainty around the timeline for the launch of the XRP Spot ETF, Polymarket currently gives a 99% chance of approval for the XRP Spot ETF by 2025. This high probability reflects the market's strong confidence in regulatory approval eventually occurring, and it also explains why prices remain resilient despite the delays in the approval process.

05 Long and Short Scenario Analysis: Key Level Defense and Offense Map

Trigger conditions for bullish scenarios

In an optimistic scenario, the synergy of multiple catalysts could drive XRP towards $2.80. A breakthrough at $2.80 may pave the way for a rise towards the psychological level of $3.0. A sustained breakthrough of $3.00 could expand the gains to the historical high of $3.66, which represents the measured move distance from the ascending triangle pattern.

The specific catalytic paths include: the Fed lowering interest rates and signaling the end of QT, reaching a trade agreement between the US and China, the US Senate passing a temporary funding bill, BlackRock submitting the S-1 form for the iShares XRP Trust, the SEC approving the XRP Spot ETF, blue-chip companies establishing XRP treasury reserves, and Ripple obtaining a US chartered bank license.

Risk factors of bearish scenarios

In a pessimistic scenario, a series of adverse developments could push XRP below the level of $2.62, reaching the support level of $2.35. If it fails to hold, $2.20 will be the next key support level.

Risk factors include: the Fed cutting interest rates but Powell pouring cold water on the December rate cut and not providing a clear timetable for the end of QT, BlackRock downplaying the XRP Spot ETF plan, the U.S. Senate failing to pass the temporary funding bill, the U.S. Senate opposing crypto-friendly legislation including the market structure bill, blue-chip companies refusing to use XRP as a treasury reserve asset, the OCC delaying or rejecting Ripple's U.S. charter banking application, and SWIFT maintaining its share in the global remittance market limiting Ripple's market access.

06 Ecological Progress and Fundamental Support: Technological Innovations Beyond Price

Ripple's strategic milestones in corporate development

Despite the delay in ETF approvals, Ripple's ecosystem continues to make substantial progress. The company's application for a U.S. charter bank license could become a significant turning point, as approval would greatly expand its range of services and regulatory recognition.

In addition, the penetration of Ripple technology in the global remittance market continues to deepen, and its integration with traditional financial infrastructure lays the foundation for long-term growth. The adoption of Ripple solutions by major financial institutions creates a sustained demand for XRP.

Early signals adopted by institutions

Although the interest of blue-chip companies in XRP as a treasury reserve asset has not yet manifested on a large scale, early signals are worth paying attention to. If major enterprises begin to incorporate XRP into their asset allocation, it could trigger a mimetic effect, providing a new source of demand for the price.

Future Outlook: Breakthrough Opportunities Under the Resonance of Multidimensional Factors

Short-term technical targets and key nodes

(Source: TradingView)

The technical trend in the coming trading days is crucial. If XRP can close above the 50-day EMA ($2.6852), it may activate a short-term bullish trend, with an initial target pointing to $2.80. After breaking through this level, the psychological barrier of $3.00 will become the next key target.

The time window at the beginning of November is particularly important, as the resolution of the government shutdown, the progress of ETF approvals, and changes in the macro environment may create a synergistic effect, creating ideal conditions for breakthroughs.

Long-term ecological development path

From a fundamental perspective, the long-term value proposition of XRP remains intact. As one of the few digital assets with clear regulatory positioning, strong corporate support, and real-world application scenarios, XRP's unique positioning in the cross-border payments sector provides it with a sustainable competitive advantage.

As the digital asset industry matures and the integration with traditional finance accelerates, the fundamental advantages of XRP may translate into broader market recognition and higher valuation levels.

Risk-adjusted investment perspective

In the current environment, investors should maintain strategic patience, recognizing that the ETF delays caused by the government shutdown are temporary regulatory hurdles rather than permanent damage to the fundamentals. The strong defense at $2.62 on the technical side indicates that the market is effectively digesting short-term bearish factors and accumulating energy for the next stage of an upward move.

For investors with an appropriate risk tolerance, the current level may offer attractive risk-return opportunities, especially considering the concentrated time window of multiple catalysts in the short term.

Conclusion

XRP is at a critical intersection of technical resilience and fundamental catalysts. The ETF delays caused by the government shutdown do pose short-term resistance, but the strong support at $2.62 and the influx of funds into institutional products indicate the market's inherent strength. As the Fed's decision, Sino-U.S. negotiations, and political deadlock solutions approach, XRP may be on the verge of a significant directional choice.

Investors should closely monitor the breakout of the 50-day EMA and the degree of volume support, as these technical signals may confirm trend changes ahead of fundamental news. Investors who maintain strategic patience and strict risk management at the end of volatility compression may better seize potential trend opportunities.