Forbes heavy prediction! Five major changes in digital assets by 2026, the end of the Bitcoin cycle.

Forbes columnist Alexander S. Blume analyzes that the 2026 forecast shows the encryption industry entering a critical phase of “deepening and maturity.” Blume presents five major predictions: DATs 2.0 Bitcoin Financial Service companies will gain legitimate status, stablecoins will be ubiquitous, the Bitcoin four-year cycle will come to an end, American investors will gain access to overseas liquidity channels, and crypto financial products will become more complex and specialized.

Laying the Foundation in 2025 and Welcoming Structural Transformation in 2026

The year 2025 is set to be the “year of transformative redemption” for digital assets, as cryptocurrency truly moves into the mainstream, both on the retail and institutional fronts. Today, this trend is indeed reflected in multiple aspects: an increase in institutional allocation ratio, the acceleration of real-world assets (RWA) being brought on-chain, and the continuous improvement of regulations and infrastructure supporting the cryptocurrency market.

At the same time, we have also witnessed the rapid rise of Digital Asset Treasuries (DATs), but not without risks. Since then, the prices of Bitcoin and Ethereum have both risen by about 15%, with these two assets increasingly integrating into the traditional financial system and gaining wider adoption. Today, the entry of digital assets into the mainstream is undoubtedly a reality.

Looking ahead to 2026, we will see a more mature and stable phase, where experimental attempts give way to sustained growth. Blume states that the core theme anticipated for 2026 is the transition from “concept explosion” to “structural implementation,” and the encryption industry will complete its transformation from speculative assets to fundamental financial tools. This transformation is not only at the price level, but also a fundamental change in the entire market structure, the composition of participants, and the regulatory framework.

Prediction 1: DATs 2.0 From Frenzy to Rationality

In 2025, the DAT model achieved explosive expansion but also came with growing pains. Various companies, from liquor brands to sunscreen manufacturers, began packaging themselves with the selling point of “holding encryption assets,” leading to investor skepticism, regulatory backlash, mismanagement, and declining valuations. In this frenzy, some DATs even started holding so-called “altcoins,” which were actually just speculative projects lacking performance records and having no investment value.

However, entering 2026, the DAT model will gradually mature, and its business logic and strategies will become clearer. Companies that are truly based on the Bitcoin standard and have sustainable business models will begin to establish a foothold in the public market. Many large DATs will start trading at prices closer to their underlying asset value, and management will also face pressure from shareholders to create actual value.

After all, a company that simply “holds a large amount of Bitcoin, does nothing, but maintains high expenses and management fees” is not a good deal for shareholders. Predictions for 2026 indicate that the market will eliminate those purely speculative DATs, rewarding companies that can create actual business value using Bitcoin reserves. This may include providing Bitcoin-backed loans, developing Bitcoin-based financial products, or integrating Bitcoin payments into real businesses.

Prediction 2: Stablecoins from Trading Tools to Financial Infrastructure

The year 2026 will be a year of full penetration for stablecoins. USDC and USDT will no longer be used solely for trading and clearing, but will be more embedded in traditional financial scenarios such as payments, corporate finance, and cross-border settlement. For businesses, the biggest appeal of stablecoins lies in instant settlement, without the need to rely on slow and expensive banking systems.

However, just like the early chaos in the DAT market, the stablecoin space may also experience oversaturation. Too many speculative stablecoin projects, too many payment platforms and wallets emerging, and too many new public chains claiming to be “born for stablecoins.” It is expected that by the end of next year, many speculative projects will be eliminated or acquired, and the market will gradually concentrate on leading brand issuers, mainstream payment institutions, and large trading platforms.

Three Major Application Scenarios of Stablecoin Predicted for 2026:

Corporate Financial Management: Multinational companies use stablecoins for real-time cross-border fund allocation.

Supply Chain Payments: B2B transactions use stablecoin settlement to reduce transaction fees and time costs.

Cross-border remittance: The personal remittance market has been disrupted by stablecoins, with transaction fees dropping from 5-10% to below 1%.

This transformation will evolve stablecoins from being encryption-native tools into a part of the global financial infrastructure. Regulators will also launch a more comprehensive stablecoin regulatory framework in 2026, requiring issuers to provide transparent reserve proof and regular audits.

Prediction Three: The Four-Year Cycle Theory of Bitcoin is Officially Invalidated

Blume asserts: In 2026, the “four-year halving cycle theory” of Bitcoin will officially become invalid. With a broader structure of market participants and a higher degree of institutionalization, Bitcoin is no longer operating in isolation. Instead, there will be a new market structure that is smoother and continuously upward. This means a decline in overall volatility, and Bitcoin will gradually evolve into a more stable store of value, thereby attracting more traditional institutional investors.

Bitcoin is transitioning from a speculative asset to a new asset class: more stable liquidity, longer holding periods, and market behavior that is closer to mature financial markets rather than cyclical speculation. This 2026 forecast is based on several key observations: institutional holdings have surpassed 30%, ETFs have attracted a large amount of long-term allocation funds, and central banks around the world are starting to consider Bitcoin in their reserve considerations.

The end of a cycle does not mean that Bitcoin will stop rising, but rather that the method of rising will shift from sharp spikes and drops to stable growth. This is a positive for the entire encryption market, as lower volatility will attract risk-averse investors, expanding the market participation base.

Prediction Four: American Investors Connecting Global Encryption Liquidity

With the improvement of regulatory policies and market structures, American investors will gradually be able to compliantly access overseas encryption liquidity. This is not a change that happens overnight, but in the coming year, the United States will see more approved overseas affiliated institutions, better custody solutions, and international trading platforms that meet compliance standards.

Stablecoin projects will also accelerate this trend. Dollar-backed stablecoins are already able to circulate across borders in ways that traditional banking systems cannot achieve. In the future, as major issuers enter more regulated overseas markets, stablecoins will become a bridge connecting US capital with the liquidity of global digital assets.

In other words, stablecoins may achieve the goal that regulators have been exploring but have not been able to realize—allowing U.S. investors to participate in the international digital asset market through a traceable and compliant pathway. This is crucial for market maturity: cross-border liquidity is a core link in the price discovery mechanism. This 2026 forecast will end the division between the U.S. and overseas cryptocurrency markets.

Prediction 5: Explosive Innovation in Structured Financial Products

In 2026, a wave of innovation in debt, equity, and derivatives centered around Bitcoin will emerge. More and more investors who previously avoided encryption assets will embrace these more mature and structured investment tools. We will see structured products backed by Bitcoin as collateral, as well as investment strategies that can generate real returns from holding Bitcoin, rather than solely relying on price appreciation.

ETFs will also surpass basic price tracking functions by providing composite returns through staking, options, or yield strategies. In the future, more total return products and derivative trading tools will emerge, gradually integrating into traditional risk management frameworks. Bitcoin will evolve from a speculative asset to a foundational financial instrument within the financial system, becoming part of the infrastructure of modern financial markets.

Predicted Structured Product Types for 2026:

Bitcoin Collateralized Bonds: Fixed income products issued with BTC as collateral

Yield ETF: Combining staking and options strategies to generate stable cash flow

Structured Derivatives: Complex tools that meet institutional hedging and arbitrage needs.

These innovations will transform Bitcoin from a mere price speculation target into a financial asset capable of generating diverse returns. Traditional asset management companies will develop multi-asset allocation strategies that include Bitcoin, and pension funds and insurance companies will gradually allocate Bitcoin-related products.