熱錢湧進台灣!新台幣匯率強升逾 1.2%,創近一個半月新高

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新台幣本週強勢反彈,在外資大舉買超台股、資金集中匯入的推波助瀾下,銀行收盤匯率從上週二(4/7)的 31.967 一路走升,至週四(4/16)收在 31.556,單週升值逾 0.4 元、升幅約 1.29%,創下近一個半月以來新高。

外資掃貨、股匯雙漲是核心驅動力

4 月 16 日成為這波行情最具代表性的一日。台股當天大漲逾百點,外資單日買超台股金額達約 44B元,新台幣盤中一度升破 31.6 元關卡。台北及元太外匯市場合計成交金額爆增至 3.7B美元,屬明顯放量,通常意味著市場存在大量匯入與拋匯需求,這正是熱錢流入的典型特徵:股票、匯市同步走強,形成外資進場的正向循環。

市場認為,美伊協議前景偏樂觀讓全球風險情緒升溫,亞洲新興市場普遍受惠,而台灣因台積電等科技權值股的吸引力,成為外資重點布局標的,資金磁吸效應尤為突出。

升勢並非一帆風順,央行暗中調節

值得注意的是,週一(4/13)匯率出現小幅回貶至 31.785,顯示市場並非單邊走勢。此外,包括央行官員及市場交易員均指出,每當外資集中且大量匯入時,央行通常會在匯市進行適度調節,避免新台幣升值過快而衝擊出口競爭力,這也是這波升值幅度尚屬可控的關鍵因素之一。

今日(4/17)出現技術回調

進入 4 月 17 日,美元指數跌深後出現反彈,由 97.83 低點回升至 98.22 附近;與此同時台股開盤翻黑,帶動新台幣早盤以 31.59 元開出,一度回貶至 31.6 元。玉山銀行今日掛牌的即期匯率顯示,買入為 31.525、賣出為 31.625,仍維持在相對強勢區間。後市觀察重點仍是外資是否延續匯入

目前市場最關鍵的變數有二:其一是外資後續能否持續匯入並維持台股買超;其二是美元能否在當前水位找到支撐、進一步反彈。若台股維持高檔、外資持續增持,分析師預期台幣短線仍將維持偏強格局;但若美元急速反彈或全球風險情緒出現逆轉,則這波熱錢進場的動能可能面臨考驗。

這篇文章 熱錢湧進台灣!新台幣匯率強升逾 1.2%,創近一個半月新高 最早出現於 鏈新聞 ABMedia。

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