CryptoQuant CEO: The four-year cycle is difficult to replicate, and the buying levels of ETF and MSTR may determine market momentum.

2025-11-02 13:51:06

According to Deep Tide TechFlow news on November 2, Ki Young Ju, founder and CEO of CryptoQuant, stated on the X platform: “I have given up predicting Bitcoin prices, but I have not given up analyzing data,” and released Bitcoin data analysis: selling pressure exceeds demand, leverage remains high; if ETF/MSTR resumes net buying, momentum may restart. Specifically:

The average cost across the network is $55,900, with an average unrealized gain of ~+93%; this week, the Realized Cap increased by +$8B, on-chain inflows remain strong, but prices are suppressed by selling pressure.

Incremental buying is concentrated in ETF/vaults; Binance traders and miners have a cost of about $56K (with nearly doubled unrealized gains), and the willingness to cash out has increased.

The “multiple difference” between market capitalization and realized market capitalization has gradually widened, but it has not yet reached extreme euphoria.

The inflow of BTC from spot to futures has significantly decreased, with high-conviction bulls reducing; leverage remains higher than two years ago, and volatility risks still exist.

Hash power hits a new high (approximately 5.96 million ASICs), listed mining companies continue to expand, and the long-term fundamentals lean towards bullish.

ETF and Strategy have recently slowed down net purchases; if the rhythm resumes, market momentum is likely to return.

Ki pointed out that incremental liquidity is more diverse, making it difficult for Bitcoin to fully follow the traditional four-year cycle.

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