Retail investors are actively buying Bitcoin amid continuous selling by whales, a trend that could signal risks for asset prices if based on historical data, according to the market sentiment analysis platform Santiment.
However, other crypto analysts have different opinions about the movement of Bitcoin in the coming weeks.
“History shows that prices often follow the direction of whales' movements, not retail investors,” Santiment noted in its market report on Saturday.
Retail Bitcoin traders (red line) are increasingly buying in as the price of Bitcoin drops due to whale investors (green line) selling off. Source: SantimentSantiment indicates that since October 12, Bitcoin whales — wallets holding between 10 and 10,000 BTC — have sold approximately 32,500 BTC. Meanwhile, retail wallets are actively buying in as prices drop.
Santiment calls the divergence among investor groups a “warning signal.” During this period, the price of Bitcoin decreased from 115,000 USD to 98,000 USD on November 4, equivalent to a drop of about 15%, according to data from CoinMarketCap. As of now, the price has recovered to 103,780 USD.
Santiment commented:
“A divergence when whales sell while retail investors buy can be a warning sign.”
Other analysts are divided on the upcoming trend of Bitcoin.
Experts from Bitfinex expect prices to maintain an accumulation phase in the short term with slight fluctuations, rather than “spiking to new record highs.”
They explained: “We believe that the money flow from the ETF at the beginning of October pushed the price up to around 125,000 USD, before the macro shocks in the middle of the month, the expiration of large options contracts, and profit-taking pulled the price back to the 100,000 USD range.”
On Friday, Bitcoin spot ETF funds ended a streak of 6 consecutive days of outflows, totaling $2.04 billion, according to Farside.
Analysts believe that Bitcoin has a chance to reach 130,000 USD if market conditions improve. They argue that if inflows into Bitcoin spot ETF funds return to over 1 billion USD per week and macro conditions are favorable, Bitcoin could move towards the 130,000 USD threshold.
Meanwhile, Jake Kennis, a senior analyst at Nansen, stated that although Bitcoin often records annual gains, “the recent liquidations and weakening in market structure make the likelihood of a strong short-term increase lower.”
“However, there is still a significant opportunity for growth by the end of the year,” Kennis said, emphasizing that Bitcoin could still reach new highs this year if market momentum “changes dramatically.”
Thạch Sanh
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