The US government is about to restart. Can Bitcoin replicate the 290% surge myth of 2019 again?

The U.S. Senate approved a funding bill to end the government shutdown on November 10th with a 60-40 vote, marking the end of a 40-day (the longest in history) federal government shutdown. Following this news, Bitcoin briefly surged past $106,000 but then retreated to around $105,333.

The market is closely watching whether the historical 290% rally of Bitcoin after the 2019 government reopening can be repeated. However, current differences in market scale, liquidity structures dominated by institutions, and macroeconomic environments make simple comparisons challenging. Analysts suggest that if the reopening effect is only half as strong as in 2019, Bitcoin could potentially surge to $260,000.

Historical Reflection: The Truth and Misinterpretation of the 2019 Surge

After the U.S. government shutdown ended on January 25, 2019, Bitcoin soared from $3,500 to $14,000 within five months—a 290% increase. This case is often cited as a typical example of positive crypto market response to government reopening, but the underlying drivers are more complex than the surface narrative suggests. At that time, Bitcoin had just experienced an 80% crash from its late 2017 peak, miners were capitulating en masse, and leverage positions were being liquidated, leaving the market in a “valuation trough.” More importantly, the Federal Reserve unexpectedly turned dovish early in 2019, with Chair Powell announcing a shift from rate hikes to “patience,” which drove real interest rates down and weakened the dollar, creating a perfect environment for risk assets.

Meanwhile, crypto market infrastructure was still in its early stages: spot ETFs were absent, institutional custody was just beginning, and derivatives markets were limited in size. This “primitive” state actually provided fertile ground for a violent rebound. The announcement of Facebook’s Libra project in mid-2019 further fueled narratives. The government reopening was coincidental and layered on top of these fundamental positives, rather than being the direct cause of the price rally. When trying to replicate this logic today, it’s crucial to recognize that the core drivers in 2019 stemmed from a “desperate bottom + monetary easing” combination, not merely the resolution of the fiscal deadlock.

Market Structure in 2025: From Marginal Asset to Mainstream Financial Pillar

Compared to 2019, the crypto market has undergone a fundamental transformation. On October 6, 2025, Bitcoin hit a record high of $126,200. Although it subsequently retraced 20% due to the government shutdown, prices still held above $105,000—far from the $3,500 bear market bottom of 2019. Market depth and complexity are vastly improved: spot ETFs now hold hundreds of billions of dollars, listed companies have record levels of treasury holdings, and the crypto lending market has reached $73.6 billion (exceeding its 2021 peak and more than doubling 2019 levels).

This institutionalization has a dual effect: on one hand, increased liquidity and reduced volatility make the market more stable; on the other, professional investors’ risk management and profit-taking behaviors tend to suppress violent upward moves. Market makers’ hedging, derivatives-based price discovery, and corporate treasury rebalancing strategies all contribute to a more “rational” price trend. Additionally, the current cycle’s position is different—next halving is expected in 2028, whereas in 2019, it was just a year away. This timing difference means the market lacks the “perfect storm” conditions that fueled the 2019 rally.

Key Data Comparison: 2019 vs. 2025 Market Environment

2019 Market Conditions

• Bitcoin Price Range: $3,500 to $14,000
• Spot ETF Assets: $0
• Crypto Lending Market: ~$30 billion
• Federal Reserve Policy: Shift from rate hikes to pause
• Halving Countdown: About 1 year

2025 Market Conditions

• Bitcoin Price Range: $105,000 to $126,200
• Spot ETF Assets: Over $50 billion
• Crypto Lending Market: $73.6 billion
• Federal Reserve Policy: Limited room for rate cuts (inflation at 3.2%)
• Halving Countdown: Over 500 days

Macro Environment Divergence: Monetary Policy Constraints and Data Lag Effects

The macro backdrop in 2025 differs significantly from 2019. Back then, the Fed had ample room for easing, inflation was moderate, and there were no major external shocks. Currently, inflation remains high at 3.2%, tariffs introduce uncertainty, and the Fed faces constraints on further rate cuts. During the shutdown, key economic data releases (such as CPI and non-farm payrolls) were interrupted, leading to a “data vacuum” that somewhat drove funds into Bitcoin and gold as inflation hedges.

As government functions resume, economic data flows normalize, and regulatory approvals (like new ETF applications) continue, some market uncertainties will diminish. However, this process is more akin to “removing negative factors” rather than “injecting positive catalysts.” Market prediction platform Polymarket shows an 87% probability of government reopening, but this already factors into some positive expectations. Upcoming CPI data will be critical in testing the sustainability of the rebound. Currently, CME FedWatch indicates a 63% chance of rate cuts in December; if actual data exceeds expectations, it could provide additional upward momentum.

Realistic Expectations: From $400,000 Fantasies to Structured Upside

Applying the 2019 rally mechanically would suggest Bitcoin could surge to $413,000 in six months, but such projections ignore three key constraints: first, institutional investors (like ETF holders and corporate treasuries) will take profits along the way; second, derivatives hedging will suppress extreme volatility; third, retail investors who have already partially cashed out at $126,000 will need stronger catalysts to re-enter at scale. A more reasonable approach is to scale down the 2019 effect: if the reopening yields half the rally, the target could be around $260,000; if only a third, then roughly $200,000 (a 97% increase).

These scenarios assume that government reopening mainly improves local sentiment rather than triggers a new cycle of massive price increases. For Bitcoin to sustain a long-term rally, ETF inflows, corporate adoption, and regulatory clarity need to accelerate collectively, rather than relying solely on leverage. Notably, if Trump’s proposed $2,000 tariff rebate checks are implemented, they could mimic pandemic stimulus measures and boost crypto markets. Nonetheless, the probability of a $400,000 scenario remains very low unless macro conditions vastly improve beyond expectations.

Conclusion

The end of the U.S. government shutdown removes a key source of short-term uncertainty for the crypto market. However, by 2025, Bitcoin is no longer a “marginal asset.” Institutionalization, professionalism, and scale have matured the market but also weakened the foundation for violent rebounds. Investors should focus on ETF capital flows, regulatory developments, and macroeconomic data as the main structural drivers, rather than overly relying on historical analogies. The long-term outlook for Bitcoin remains driven by supply-demand fundamentals; government reopening is merely removing a short-term obstacle, not creating a fundamental new demand, so its impact is unlikely to last long.