Polymarket: There is a 34% chance that Bitcoin will hit $100,000 in January

2026-01-04 01:21:57

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Forecast markets are showing a relatively optimistic outlook for Bitcoin in the early part of the year. According to Polymarket, traders are pricing in a 34% probability that Bitcoin could reach $100,000 in January. Meanwhile, the chance of Bitcoin returning to the $80,000 range is only 23%. This discrepancy indicates that the market currently assigns a higher probability to an upward scenario than to a sharp correction in the short term.

These expectations are often influenced by macroeconomic factors, interest rate policies, ETF capital flows, and overall sentiment towards risk assets. While 34% does not imply certainty, this figure reflects a significant confidence that Bitcoin could test new highs if conditions are favorable. However, the probability of a decline still exists, indicating that volatility risks have not disappeared.

BTC2,04%

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