VanEck New Year Outlook: How to Allocate Assets in 2026? Gold, Bitcoin, and Resource Stocks as the Three Main Defensive Pillars

Global renowned investment management firm VanEck recently released its cross-asset class investment outlook for 2026. The company’s CEO Jan van Eck maintains a “cautiously optimistic” stance, believing that real progress has been made in fiscal matters and that markets are seeking balance. Against this macro backdrop, several of the company’s portfolio managers shared in-depth insights into gold, natural resources, fixed income, emerging markets, and digital assets. The core view suggests that artificial intelligence (AI) will transition from the construction phase to the application phase, with volatility expected to increase accordingly; meanwhile, gold and Bitcoin are positioned as scarce assets to hedge against “currency devaluation.” The report emphasizes that the capital-intensive transformation of Bitcoin mining is creating the clearest industry consolidation opportunity since 2020.

Macro Outlook: The Three Major Super Themes Driving the 2026 Market

By 2026, the global markets will be primarily driven by three powerful “super themes” intertwined to shape the future investment landscape. David Schassler, head of multi-asset solutions at VanEck, explicitly states that understanding these themes is key to seizing opportunities in the coming year. These are not short-term market noise but structural trends that could last for years, influencing nearly every asset class.

First is the ongoing technological revolution. The development of AI is transitioning from the first stage (infrastructure building) to the second stage (widespread application and adoption). The first stage rewarded scale and narrative power, while the second demands that companies demonstrate clear return on investment amid the largest tech capital expenditure cycle in history. This shift will force markets to confront some “difficult truths,” potentially increasing volatility in tech stocks. However, volatility itself is a feature of this revolution, creating entry points for investors to buy on dips.

Second, “Old World” assets are building the “New World.” An often overlooked fact is that tangible assets, including natural resource stocks, have quietly outperformed the tech-heavy QQQ index this year. They are becoming “understated beneficiaries” of AI infrastructure, energy transition, and manufacturing reshoring trends. Schassler believes we are in the early stages of a possible decade-long super cycle for tangible assets. Whether it’s copper for power grids or natural gas for data centers, these traditional resources are the physical foundation of the digital future.

Finally, currency devaluation is “paying the bill” for past debts and future ambitions. Increasing signs indicate that some governments are intentionally devaluing currencies through fiscal and monetary measures as a “shadow financial strategy” to manage historic debt and fund grand projects. This long-term risk underscores the need to allocate truly scarce assets for hedging. Under this macro narrative, the strategic value of gold and Bitcoin is greatly enhanced. The report forecasts that a bull market in gold will bring unprecedented volatility, which is not a flaw but an opportunity. Bitcoin’s significant lag behind stocks and gold in 2025 is seen as an attractive entry point, given its high sensitivity to financial conditions, and as the environment loosens, Bitcoin is poised to be the ultimate beneficiary.

Traditional Assets Focus: Gold Bull Market and Structural Opportunities from Resource Shortages

Against the backdrop of the three super themes, traditional asset classes are not fading away but are revitalized by profound changes in their fundamentals. Gold and natural resources are shifting from their traditional “defensive role” to “offensive opportunities,” with driving logic closely tied to the global macro landscape.

The fundamentals supporting gold are exceptionally solid. Imaru Casanova, portfolio manager for gold and precious metals, notes that gold prices will break through $4,000 per ounce and establish a new trading range by 2025, supported by two persistent forces. On one hand, central bank gold purchases have set records for three consecutive years, reflecting a structural shift toward de-dollarization and reserve diversification that is expected to continue. On the other hand, Western investment demand, a primary driver of gold prices, is finally rebounding, while holdings in gold ETFs remain well below previous peaks, indicating significant room for inflows. Coupled with geopolitical risks, stock market valuation concerns, and diversification needs, gold’s allocation value is highlighted.

Gold stocks are viewed as the most attractive opportunity currently. Despite strong performance in gold prices and mining stocks this year, valuation multiples relative to the broader market and their own history remain subdued. This divergence contrasts with the sector’s strongest fundamentals in decades—record revenues and cash flows, expanding profit margins, and healthy balance sheets. The total market cap of global gold stocks is about $1 trillion; a small shift of funds from crowded equity sectors could trigger a major revaluation of this sector.

Meanwhile, the world is entering a structural “power shortage” era. Shawn Reynolds, global resource portfolio manager, emphasizes that the demand for electricity driven by AI data centers, full electrification, reshoring manufacturing, and urbanization is growing at its fastest pace in decades, clashing with aging energy systems designed for the old era (resource supply security, insufficient generation capacity, aging grids). Years of underinvestment have kept supplies of key metals like natural gas and copper tight. Policy uncertainties may increase short-term volatility, but the long-term demand growth from electrification, grid expansion, and data center construction, combined with slow and complex supply responses (especially due to long approval cycles and high costs for mining projects), underpin the long-term bullish case for natural resource stocks.

Copper and Natural Gas: The Core Reflection of Resource Shortages

Copper supply-demand imbalance: Disruptions in supply, limited new project pipelines, and long development cycles face surging demand from EVs, grid investments, and digital infrastructure. Companies with high-quality assets, clean balance sheets, and visible production growth will benefit.

Natural gas as a transitional fuel: When grid capacity struggles to meet rapid growth in electricity demand, natural gas remains a key transitional fuel. Producers with low breakeven costs, disciplined capital management, and infrastructure advantages will continue to benefit.

The convergence of old and new energy sources: Beyond traditional sectors, next-generation power technologies such as advanced nuclear, geothermal, hydrogen, long-duration storage, and AI grid solutions are emerging as new investment directions for countries seeking secure, scalable, and affordable power.

Emerging Markets and Fixed Income: Finding Value Amid Divergence

As the macro narrative shifts, emerging markets and fixed income are no longer homogeneous; high divergence demands more selective investing. From bonds to equities, opportunities and risks are regionally distinct, making active management and deep fundamental analysis crucial.

Emerging market bonds show unique “fiscal discipline” advantages. Eric Fine, head of active emerging market bonds, notes that EM bonds have been overlooked for years, yet over the past two decades, they have outperformed developed market bonds in both absolute and risk-adjusted returns. A key difference is that many emerging markets have not fallen into the “fiscal dominance” trap plaguing developed economies; their central government debt levels are typically only half or a third of those in developed markets, indicating healthier fiscal positions. This fiscal orthodoxy supports dollar-denominated bonds and significantly reduces borrowing costs for local currency bonds. As countries seek new reserve assets, in addition to gold, emerging market bonds are likely to come into focus.

Emerging market equities could have a fundamentals-driven year. Ola El-Shawarby, portfolio manager for EM equities, believes that after years of macro uncertainty, 2026 presents a more balanced environment supported by fundamentals. Easing inflation, increased policy flexibility, and a difficult-to-strengthen dollar create more constructive conditions for EM. Additionally, renewed focus on global diversification is attracting investors back to this asset class.

Key Opportunities Map for Emerging Market Stocks in 2026

China: Early in a multi-year recovery cycle, with opportunities in AI innovation, supply-side reforms, and efforts to boost consumption across internet, automation, and advanced tech sectors.

India: A stable long-term story, with benefits for financials, quality consumer brands, and industrial sectors amid stronger demand in a more balanced macro environment.

South Korea and Taiwan: Core beneficiaries of structural semiconductor demand related to AI. South Korea’s “value enhancement” plan helps narrow long-standing valuation discounts.

Brazil and Mexico: Brazil benefits from slowing inflation and potential rapid rate cuts; Mexico may accelerate investment due to USMCA progress and nearshoring trends.

Gulf Region: UAE and Saudi Arabia, leveraging low-cost energy, improved access to advanced chips, and market modernization, are becoming potential AI-driven growth and reform stories.

Fixed income will focus more on relative value and capital preservation. Fran Rodilosso, head of fixed income ETF management, states that with lower starting yields and narrowing credit spreads, the baseline return for fixed income in 2026 will be more moderate. In this context, the focus should shift from momentum chasing to relative value and capital preservation. Investment-grade and mezzanine CLOs, local currency emerging market bonds, and “fallen angels” (bonds downgraded from investment grade to high yield) are gaining attention for offering diversified income sources and higher credit quality compared to traditional bonds. Maintaining caution on duration (interest rate risk) remains necessary, as policy dilemmas could complicate long-term yield movements.

Deep Dive into Digital Assets: Bitcoin Mining Transformation and New Market Logic

Among various asset classes, digital assets continue to attract investors seeking excess returns due to their unique cyclicality, technological drivers, and high volatility. Matthew Sigel, head of digital asset research at VanEck, sketches a cautious but opportunity-rich outlook for the crypto market in 2026.

The market is in a “digestion and consolidation” phase. The report notes that Bitcoin has fallen about 80% in the last cycle, and realized volatility in the current cycle has halved, implying that the current correction might be around 40%. Given that the market has retraced roughly 35% from its high, further downside appears limited. Additionally, Bitcoin’s four-year cycle (often peaking shortly after elections) remains valid after the October 2025 high, suggesting 2026 is more likely to be a consolidation year rather than a year of explosive growth or collapse. The analysis considers global liquidity, ecosystem leverage, and on-chain activity, with signals mixed but overall leaning constructive.

Discipline in allocation is key for investment strategy. Sigel recommends a 1% to 3% Bitcoin allocation, executed through dollar-cost averaging, adding on margin liquidations, and reducing during speculative excess. Furthermore, “quantum security” has become an active topic within the crypto community; while not an immediate threat, coordinated responses could attract new observers, increasing long-term engagement—similar to early debates on block size.

The true structural opportunity lies in the intense transformation of the Bitcoin mining industry. This is the most emphasized point in the report. Currently, miners face two capital-intensive tasks: expanding hash rate to meet network difficulty and upcoming halving rewards, and transitioning many leading miners into AI and HPC infrastructure providers to leverage their energy resources and data center expertise. This dual effort pushes miners’ balance sheets to the limit and significantly widens the capital cost gap among industry players.

Capital capability divergence will drive industry reshuffling. Miners partnering with hyperscalers can access debt financing at favorable terms; second-tier operators rely on convertible bonds or sell Bitcoin during market downturns to sustain operations. VanEck sees this as creating the clearest industry consolidation since 2020-2021. The most attractive risk-reward opportunities are among miners capable of transforming into energy-backed compute platforms, with credible HPC economic models, advantageous power resources, and non-dilutive financing options.

Stablecoins for B2B payments represent another selective opportunity. Stablecoins are gradually entering real enterprise-to-business payment flows, showing potential to improve working capital management and reduce cross-border settlement costs. However, pure publicly listed tokens are still scarce. From an investable perspective, the more promising angle involves fintech and e-commerce platforms that can unlock profit margins by shifting supplier payments, payroll, and cross-border settlements onto stablecoin networks. High-throughput public chains will support most such activities, but the most enduring opportunities may lie with operational companies driving adoption rather than broad token exposure.

Event Context: Bitcoin’s Four-Year Cycle and Market Psychology

To understand institutional views on Bitcoin’s “consolidation year” in 2026, one must revisit its unique market cycle. Bitcoin’s four-year cycle, often called the “halving cycle,” is driven by more than just block reward halving; it is a resonance of liquidity, market sentiment, technological innovation, and macro environment.

First, halving events are the core supply-side narrative. Approximately every four years, Bitcoin’s block reward halves, permanently reducing new supply by 50%. Economically, this directly impacts scarcity expectations. Historically, the three halvings (2012, 2016, 2020) have been followed by significant price increases, despite varying time lags. This pattern has deeply shaped market psychology, creating a self-fulfilling prophecy.

Second, cycle phases align with shifts in participant structure. A typical cycle includes accumulation in bear markets, pre-halving speculation, post-halving liquidity-driven rallies, and top-and-bear phases characterized by leverage liquidations and speculation frenzy. The dominant market players evolve—from long-term holders to short-term traders and institutional entrants. The approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs in the US in 2023-2024 marks a new chapter, bringing in substantial traditional capital and altering the cycle’s player composition and capital flows.

Finally, external macro liquidity acts as a key “catalyst” or “brake.” Bitcoin, as a marginal risk asset highly sensitive to global dollar liquidity, tends to top when liquidity is most abundant and risk appetite is high, and bottom when liquidity tightens and risk aversion rises. The 2026 “consolidation year” judgment is based on a comprehensive view of liquidity conditions (Fed rate cuts with limited magnitude), leverage levels (already reduced from highs), and valuation midpoints. Recognizing this helps investors avoid simplistic historical price comparisons and instead view Bitcoin’s position through a broader macro lens.

Extended Analysis: Public Chain Competition and Ethereum’s Challenges

Beyond Bitcoin mining transformation and stablecoin payments, another core narrative in the digital asset ecosystem—public chain competition—will enter a new phase in 2026. As the dominant player, Ethereum’s challenges and evolution warrant close attention.

Ethereum faces ongoing “scalability trilemma” pressures. Achieving decentralization, security, and scalability simultaneously remains extremely difficult. Ethereum’s shift to proof-of-stake and Layer 2 rollup scaling has made significant progress. However, with complex use cases like AI agents, on-chain gaming, and large DeFi applications emerging, demands on throughput, finality speed, and transaction costs are rising. Chains like Solana, Avalanche, and Sui, with higher throughput, are gaining traction in specific ecosystems, creating differentiated competition.

In 2026, upgrades like Verkle tree implementation and further fee market reforms will be focal points. These aim to optimize node storage and network efficiency, foundational for long-term development. Yet, the complexity of upgrades and achieving community consensus are challenges. Additionally, Ethereum’s “modular” roadmap—separating execution, settlement, and data availability—must perform well in practice to sustain ecosystem value. For investors, blockchain investments will require discerning specific technical implementations, developer activity, and real user and capital inflows, rather than simply betting on “Ethereum killers.”

Application layer innovation will continue to drive value discovery. Whether it’s stablecoins for B2B payments, DeFi re-staking, RWA tokenization, or SocialFi and DePIN models, ultimate value resides in applications and protocols that capture user engagement and cash flow. As the underlying soil, the value of public chains depends partly on the prosperity of their “crop” applications. Therefore, 2026 digital asset investing may require a more nuanced perspective: alongside macro narratives for Bitcoin and ecosystem development for Ethereum, closely tracking application projects with strong product-market fit in specific verticals (payments, gaming, social) will be crucial.