Entering a new year, the Bitcoin market has seen a long-awaited turning point. Bitcoin prices have recently rebounded strongly, marking the first time since October last year that it has re-claimed the 200-day moving average, bringing a glimmer of hope for long-term bulls who have been on the sidelines. As the price structure improves, the market is beginning to focus on whether Bitcoin has the chance to break free from the “death cross” bearish pattern formed in November last year and re-establish a medium- to long-term upward trend. The accumulated compression momentum over the past few weeks has already been released upward. The 200-day moving average has stabilized again. If Bitcoin can close above $95,000 for several consecutive trading days, and the average daily volatility (ADX) continues to rise, then Bitcoin may be able to escape the death cross dilemma and form a “golden cross.” A golden cross refers to the 50-day EMA (50-day EMA) crossing above the 200-day (200-day) moving average. Traders generally see this pattern as an important bullish signal indicating a sustained upward trend. This article is excerpted and compiled from Decrypt analysis report.
Trump Administration Counterattacks Venezuela, Bitcoin Breaks Out of Consolidation
The intense volatility in the financial markets at the beginning of the year was not initially triggered by cryptocurrencies. In early January, a sudden geopolitical event in the United States shocked global markets, with risk aversion soaring. Gold prices once surged above $4,400 per ounce, and US stocks rose driven by tech stocks. Against this backdrop, Bitcoin, which had been in a prolonged range, became one of the assets to break out of consolidation.
Bitcoin is at a turning point from a death cross to a breakout
According to the latest market data, Bitcoin (BTC) is trading at around 93,900, up about 2.7% in a single day. More important than the percentage increase itself is the position of the price: this is the first time since October last year that Bitcoin has effectively broken above the 200-day exponential moving average. If this stabilization can continue, it will lay the foundation for reversing the technical weakness of the past few months.
For many traders, this change is symbolic. Over the past year, despite a relatively friendly political and policy environment for cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin failed to sustain strong momentum. Although it surged more than double in 2024, briefly surpassing $100,000, the market then experienced a typical “buy the rumor, sell the news” pattern after policy implementation. The year 2025 ultimately ended with a decline of about 6%, contrasting sharply with gold and silver’s decades-best performance.
While traditional safe-haven assets shined, Bitcoin, known as “digital gold,” repeatedly failed to hold the $90,000 mark. However, recent geopolitical uncertainties have prompted some investors to reconsider Bitcoin’s core value. When international tensions escalate and government power exhibits high uncertainty, the concept of an asset that is difficult to confiscate and decentralized again attracts market attention.
From a technical perspective, Bitcoin has been consolidating sideways between $85,000 and $90,000 over the past few weeks, with volatility gradually narrowing, indicating a clear “compression” state. After this week’s opening, the price quickly broke through resistance, surging above $93,000. The daily candlestick shows a strong real body with almost no upper shadow, indicating a clear buying attitude.
Bitcoin Reclaims the 200-Day Moving Average
The 200-day exponential moving average has always been regarded as a critical dividing line for long-term trends. When the price is above this level, it indicates a bullish technical structure; below it, a bearish dominance. Bitcoin’s recent return above this moving average marks the first time in months that it has broken free from long-term pressure.
However, the market still remains at risk. Since the 50-day moving average is still below the 200-day line, the “death cross” pattern has not been resolved. This structure usually indicates a medium- to long-term bearish trend, with the bears still holding the advantage.
Other technical indicators provide more neutral signals. The Average Directional Index (ADX) is currently around 21, indicating a low trend strength, and the market may still be in a phase of trend selection. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is about 65, reflecting increasing buying momentum but not yet in overbought territory, leaving room for short-term upside.
Overall, Bitcoin is at a critical turning point. If the price can stay steadily above $95,000 for several trading days and trend strength picks up, the market will begin to anticipate the 50-day moving average crossing above the 200-day moving average, forming a “golden cross.” In technical analysis, this pattern is often seen as an important signal for re-establishing a medium- to long-term bullish trend.
This article Bitcoin Reclaims the 200-Day Moving Average, If Steady Above 95K, May See a Golden Cross First Published on Chain News ABMedia.
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