Did Maduro really hide 60 billion USD worth of BTC?

Writing by: Cathy, Plain Language Blockchain

On January 3, 2026, early morning, U.S. special forces arrested Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro in a military operation codenamed “Absolute Resolve” in Caracas.

This event has sparked a huge question in the crypto community: Does the Maduro regime really hide the rumored “shadow reserves”?

According to reports from investigative firm Whale Hunting and multiple intelligence sources, there is a startling rumor circulating: the Maduro regime may hold between 600,000 and 660,000 BTC. If true, based on early 2026 market prices, the total value could reach $60-67 billion.

What does this mean?

MicroStrategy (now renamed Strategy), known as the “Bitcoin whale,” held over 670,000 BTC as of January 2026, worth approximately $61.3 billion. If the Venezuelan rumors are accurate, their holdings would be comparable to the world’s largest corporate buyer, accounting for about 3% of the total Bitcoin supply (21 million).

But the question remains: does this wealth truly exist? If so, where is it hidden?

In the crypto world, there’s a strict rule: “Not your keys, not your coins.”

01 How did the rumors originate?

To understand where the “600,000 BTC” rumor comes from, we need to first explore how the Maduro regime theoretically could have accumulated Bitcoin. It’s important to emphasize that the following analysis is based on public reports and intelligence estimates, not confirmed facts.

Path 1: The Oil-backed Cryptocurrency Scam — paving the way for crypto accumulation

In February 2018, under heavy U.S. sanctions, Maduro announced the issuance of the world’s first “national-level cryptocurrency” — Petro. The government claimed to have raised $735 million on the first day, with a total fundraising goal of $6 billion.

However, investigations revealed serious issues from the start.

Petro initially claimed to be based on Ethereum, then on NEM, and ultimately appeared to operate on a private chain that likely doesn’t exist. The government claimed Petro was backed by 5.3 billion barrels of oil in the Ayacucho block, but on-site investigations showed the infrastructure was dilapidated, with no active extraction.

The so-called “fundraising” was probably just a transfer of assets within the regime’s internal accounts.

Although Petro failed, it left a key byproduct: Sunacrip (the National Cryptocurrency Regulatory Authority). This agency was empowered to regulate all crypto activities, issue mining licenses, and even operate state mining pools. It is not a regulator but a money laundering center for the state.

In January 2024, Maduro officially shut down Petro. This was not a failure but a strategic shift — from “issuer” to “holder,” focusing entirely on truly liquid global assets like Bitcoin and USDT.

Path 2: PDVSA-Crypto scandal — $21 billion unaccounted for

Market rumors suggest that the core source of Maduro’s Bitcoin reserves may stem from embezzlement of oil export revenues from state oil company PDVSA.

In 2019, the U.S. imposed comprehensive sanctions on PDVSA, cutting it off from the global banking system. To survive, PDVSA launched an “anti-blockade” strategy:

Dark Fleet: Using oil tankers with disabled transponders to ship crude oil to Asian “teapot refineries” (small, non-state refineries).

Intermediary networks: Using shell companies registered in the UAE, Russia, and elsewhere to obscure oil sources. These intermediaries often lack oil trading experience, with their only qualification being personal ties to regime insiders.

Crypto settlements: Due to inability to receive USD wire transfers, payments were instructed to be made in USDT (Tether).

In March 2023, Venezuela was rocked by the shocking “PDVSA-Crypto” scandal. Internal audits revealed that between 2020 and 2023, about $21 billion in oil export receivables went missing.

Where did this money go? It remains a mystery.

Some intelligence analysts speculate that part of it may have been funneled back into regime-controlled wallets via cryptocurrencies. It is said that Sunacrip established an automated “jumping-off point” mechanism:

Receive: Intermediaries transfer USDT into Sunacrip-controlled intermediary wallets

Wash: Using mixers like Tornado Cash to obfuscate the funds

Exchange: Converting USDT to Bitcoin at OTC desks in Russia or Eastern Europe

Store: Transferring Bitcoin into offline cold wallets, with private keys held by the regime’s top leadership

The core architects of this system are Tareck El Aissami (former oil minister) and Alex Saab (the regime’s “financial diplomat”). After resigning in March 2023, El Aissami was arrested in April 2024 on charges of corruption, treason, and money laundering. His assets are likely confiscated by Maduro’s family.

Saab returned to Venezuela in December 2023 after a prisoner swap with the U.S., exchanging 10 American detainees for him, demonstrating his irreplaceable role in Maduro’s regime — probably due to his control over financial arteries.

Path 3: Military mining — confiscated “national hash power”

Besides oil revenues, another theory suggests that the regime might directly produce Bitcoin by controlling “production assets.”

Venezuela has some of the cheapest electricity in the world, mainly supplied by the Guri Dam. This makes Bitcoin mining highly profitable. Maduro’s government, through the military commercial sector CAMIMPEG (Mining, Oil, and Gas Military Company), monopolizes this advantage.

CAMIMPEG established the “Bolivar Army Digital Asset Production Center,” where military mining farms enjoy privileges:

Power supply: Priority electricity during frequent nationwide outages

Security: Heavily guarded by National Guard troops

Zero-cost operation: Since electricity is subsidized by the state, marginal costs are near zero

But where did the equipment come from? A large part was seized from private miners.

Starting in 2020, Sunacrip and the military launched raids on private mining farms:

2020: National Guard seized 315 Antminer S9s in Bolívar state

2023: Raids at the “Aragua Train” gang headquarters in Tocorón prison, confiscating numerous mining machines and weapons

2024: Over 2,300 Antminer S19J Pro units seized in Maracay in a single operation

Intelligence estimates suggest that between 2020 and 2025, the government may have confiscated tens of thousands of mining units from private farms and gangs. These devices were not destroyed but redeployed to CAMIMPEG-controlled facilities.

Based on known thousands of high-performance miners plus state-owned farms, this “zombie army” could have produced tens of thousands of Bitcoin over recent years.

02 The source and skepticism of the “600,000 BTC” rumor

Key question: Is this number credible?

Based on intelligence reports from Chainalysis, TRM Labs, and Whale Hunting, the circulating estimate is between 600,000 and 660,000 BTC. But it must be emphasized:

• This figure is from intelligence sources, not from traceable blockchain data

• No on-chain evidence supports this number

• Whale Hunting explicitly states: “This estimate comes from HUMINT (human intelligence), not confirmed by blockchain analysis”

Nevertheless, the report provides a hypothetical composition analysis:

Does this rumor make sense logically?

Supporters argue:

• MicroStrategy comparison: As of January 2026, MicroStrategy (now Strategy) holds over 670,000 BTC. A sovereign state could theoretically reach a similar scale.

• Funding support: PDVSA’s missing $21 billion from 2020-2023, if 50% converted into Bitcoin at average prices, could buy 300,000–400,000 BTC.

Skeptics argue:

• Lack of on-chain evidence: If 600,000 BTC truly existed, specific addresses should be identifiable, but none have been pointed out.

• The number is too neat: 600,000 seems more like an estimate than actual data, possibly greatly overestimated.

• Motive doubts: The rumor could be used for political purposes or market manipulation.

Conclusion: Without concrete blockchain evidence, this remains an unverified rumor.

03 If the rumor is true: who holds the private keys?

Assuming this “shadow reserve” exists, even if Maduro is arrested, it doesn’t mean the U.S. can control it.

The primary challenge for the FBI is: how to prove these Bitcoins exist and find the private keys?

Who might hold the private keys?

If the assets are real, intelligence analysts suggest it’s unlikely managed by a single account; more likely a multi-signature (Multisig) or key sharding scheme.

Potential key holders include:

• Alex Saab: As the regime’s financial architect, Saab understands the full flow of funds and likely holds the critical mnemonic phrases or hardware wallets needed to recover the wallets. His return to Venezuela in December 2023 after the prisoner swap with the U.S. underscores his irreplaceability, probably due to his control over financial channels.

• Nicolásito (Maduro’s son): Named in indictments, deeply involved in illegal gold mining and regime operations, possibly holding a backup of part of the family’s private keys.

• Cilia Flores (First Lady): Known as “First Fighter,” she holds a high position within the core regime circle. She might have physical control over some cold wallets.

• Technical officials: Former Sunacrip technical staff responsible for maintaining multi-signature architectures, though they may not know the full private keys, their cooperation is crucial for reconstructing access.

Cryptographic architecture speculation:

Most likely, a M-of-N scheme (e.g., 3/5 or 5/7). This means at least 3 of the core individuals must sign to move funds.

If Maduro, Flores, and Saab are all under U.S. control, theoretically, the U.S. could force cooperation. But reality is more complex:

• Geographical dispersion: Cold wallets could be stored in Caracas vaults, Russian safes, or Cuban safe houses.

• Dead man’s switch: A system might be set to trigger automatically if certain conditions are unmet (e.g., Maduro’s disappearance), transferring funds to inaccessible addresses or other allies.

• Ideological resistance: Even facing life imprisonment, key figures might refuse to cooperate, viewing the private keys as their last weapon against “imperialism.”

04 Market impact: the rumor itself creates uncertainty

Even if unverified, the rumor acts as a “Damocles sword” hanging over the crypto market. 600,000 BTC equals about 3% of total supply. If real, it would have a huge impact.

Three possible scenarios:

Scenario 1: The rumor is false

If FBI and blockchain analysis conclusively find that the “shadow reserve” does not exist or is grossly overestimated, the market might breathe a sigh of relief. No selling pressure would emerge, and prices could remain stable or slightly positive.

Scenario 2: The rumor is true and under FBI control

If the assets exist and the U.S. successfully seizes them, they would likely enter judicial freeze, possibly for years. This would lock up a significant supply, reducing circulating supply and potentially boosting prices.

This is similar to the FBI’s seizure of Silk Road Bitcoins in 2013, about 170,000 BTC, which were eventually auctioned off. During the freeze, these coins effectively exited circulation, reducing market selling pressure.

Scenario 3: The rumor is true but private keys are uncontrolled

The most dangerous scenario. If the assets exist but the private keys are not under U.S. control, remnants of the regime might attempt OTC sales to raise funds, causing panic selling.

When the German government sold just 50,000 BTC in 2024, it caused short-term market volatility. Selling 600,000 BTC would be catastrophic.

05 Summary

Maduro’s arrest indeed reveals a glimpse of how the Venezuelan regime has used cryptocurrencies to evade sanctions.

From the failed Petro experiment to the $21 billion PDVSA-Crypto scandal, and militarized mining facilities, these are confirmed facts. But the “600,000 BTC shadow reserve” rumor remains unproven.

What we can confirm:

• Venezuela has used crypto to evade sanctions

• PDVSA has $21 billion missing

• The regime has confiscated a large number of mining machines

What remains unconfirmed:

• Whether they truly accumulated 600,000 BTC

• Who holds the private keys (if they exist)

• Whether these Bitcoins will enter the market

This raises a sharp question: when decentralized tech is used to evade sanctions, how do we balance freedom and order?

Until more evidence surfaces, the “600 billion USD shadow reserve” remains an unverified rumor.