PANews January 8 News, PANews recently analyzed 295,000 historical market data points from the Polymarket platform. The data shows:
- More than 60% of short-term markets have become “zombies”: among active markets with a cycle of less than 1 day, 63.16% of contracts had a 24-hour trading volume of 0.
- Lack of liquidity in crypto short-term trading: the average trading volume in short-term sports markets ($1.32 million) is 30 times higher than in crypto ($44,000), indicating a lack of capital support for crypto short-term predictions.
- Extreme head effect: only 505 super contracts with a trading volume of over $10 million (a very small proportion) account for 47% of the total trading volume across the platform.
- Large funds favor long-term: the average liquidity for long-term predictions (>30 days) is 45 times that of single-day markets, with U.S. political predictions leading at an average of $28.17 million.
- Geopolitical rise: this sector accounts for 29.7% of active engagement, becoming the fastest-growing track.
Data indicates that Polymarket is differentiating into “high-frequency sports betting” and “macro political hedging,” with liquidity highly concentrated in a very small number of top narratives.
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