[Crypto Insights #9] Japan's Big Win Accelerates "Yen Depreciation"… The "Mixed Emotions" in the Transfer of 24,000 Bitcoins

Japan’s Liberal Democratic Party wins a landslide victory in the general election, and the “Koshin Economy” is expected to be officially launched. Against this backdrop, the virtual asset market is simultaneously capturing contradictory signals such as large-scale Bitcoin transfers and the emergence of new technological standards, and investors need to stay alert.

On the 9th, the specialized virtual asset media TokenPost analyzed four core variables that have recently run through the market in its broadcast program “Insight #9.”

◇ Koshin’s big win accelerates “Yen depreciation”… Expect Japanese liquidity inflow

In the Japanese House of Representatives election held on the 8th, Prime Minister Sanae Koshin’s Liberal Democratic Party alliance secured over 300 seats, achieving an overwhelming victory. With control of two-thirds of the seats, the Koshin administration is expected to implement active fiscal expansion and delay interest rate hikes in the future.

Market experts interpret this as a signal of “Koshin trading.” Analysts believe that if the Yen depreciates rapidly, demand for Bitcoin as a store of value will explode domestically in Japan, whose liquidity ranks third globally, becoming a strong driver supporting a market downturn.

◇ 24,000 Bitcoins deposited into exchanges… Beware of “artificial rebound” theory

Contrary to the positive macro environment news, on-chain data issued a cold warning. In just one day on the 5th, about 24,000 Bitcoins were deposited into exchanges, setting this year’s record high. This is often seen as a signal that miners are preparing to sell.

Renowned trader CryptoNuevo diagnosed that the current rebound is very likely a “artificial rebound” aimed at liquidating short positions in the $72,000 to $77,000 range. He pointed out that if this hypothesis is true, there is a risk of a pullback to the $50,000 level within the next 5 to 8 weeks.

◇ Ethereum “AI ID Card” standard ERC-8004 released… Strengthening substantive utility

On the technical level, the transformation of the Ethereum ecosystem is noteworthy. The recently released “ERC-8004” standard’s core content is to give AI agents NFT-based identification and on-chain credit ratings.

This is regarded as laying the infrastructure for the “AI decentralized commerce” era, where AI agents can autonomously trade with each other. Experts analyze that, apart from Bitcoin’s price fluctuations, Ethereum is establishing itself as the core infrastructure of the AI economy, strengthening its fundamentals.

◇ Morgan Stanley maintains an optimistic view of “early global supercycle”

On the other hand, global investment bank Morgan Stanley remains optimistic about the current market, viewing it as the beginning of a “global supercycle.” Its explanation states that rising copper prices, strong performance of the Korean stock market, and the overlapping of fiscal, monetary, and regulatory “triple easing” are creating a “golden hair girl” market that pushes asset prices higher.

TokenPost editor-in-chief suggests: “The current market is dangerously balancing between short-term correction and long-term rise. Instead of reacting emotionally to news noise, it is better to maintain a defensive stance based on liquidity (M2) flows and on-chain supply and demand data.”