Citrini releases AI Doomsday Report: Software stocks are sold off, IBM plunges 13%

Research organization Citrini Research released the “Global Intelligence Crisis” report, which received over 22 million views on the X platform on February 23, 2026. It is considered one of the catalysts for the collective sell-off of software and payment stocks that day, with IBM plummeting 13.1%, marking its largest single-day decline in 25 years.

Core Argument of the Report: How AI Agents Trigger “Ghost GDP” and White-Collar Layoff Chain Reactions

(Source: Citrini Research)

Citrini’s report envisions an extreme scenario set in June 2028: Large-scale deployment of AI Agents significantly boosts corporate profits while increasingly rendering human white-collar workers redundant, ultimately leading to a contraction in consumer spending, a collapse of private credit, and threatening the $13 trillion US mortgage market. In this scenario, the S&P 500 index drops 38% from its all-time high, and the unemployment rate exceeds 10%.

The report’s concept of “Ghost GDP” has sparked widespread discussion. Citrini defines it as output appearing in national accounts but never circulating in the real economy. An illustrative example states: “The output generated by a GPU cluster in North Dakota is equivalent to the total output of 10,000 office workers in Manhattan.” This framework suggests that AI agents may increase nominal GDP while systematically compressing consumers’ actual disposable income.

Anthropic announced that its Claude Code can modernize COBOL programs (widely used in government, banking, and airline transaction processing systems), which is seen as a near-term event directly impacting IBM’s stock price, since COBOL primarily runs on IBM systems. Renowned risk theorist Nassim Taleb also warned that AI could lead some software companies toward bankruptcy.

Market Data: Impact on Software and Payment Stocks on February 23

Major affected stocks’ single-day declines:

IBM: -13.1% (to $223.35), the largest single-day drop in 25 years

American Express: -7.2%

Accenture: -6.58%

Mastercard: -5.77%

Oracle: -4.57%

Visa: -4.5%

Microsoft: -3.21%

Citrini’s report believes that the pressure on payment stocks stems from: the wave of white-collar layoffs triggered by AI will cause a large-scale reduction in consumer spending, leading to a chain of defaults on software-supported loans and private credit.

It is noteworthy that some prominent tech investors have challenged the speed at which AI is replacing humans as described in the report. Jason Calacanis pointed out that he spends $300 daily to run an AI agent operating at only 10%–20% capacity; Chamath Palihapitiya stated that AI agents’ productivity must be at least twice that of human workers to be cost-justified; Mark Cuban called the cost constraints argument the “most compelling anti-AI replacement argument” he has seen.

FAQs

What is Citrini Research, and why did this report trigger such a strong market reaction?

Citrini Research is a relatively low-profile research organization. Before this report, it maintained a low profile. The “Global Intelligence Crisis” report garnered over 22 million views on the X platform. Coupled with existing market concerns about AI disrupting tech profitability, it became a partial catalyst for the large-scale sell-off of software and payment stocks that day.

What is “Ghost GDP,” and what implications does it have for the cryptocurrency market?

Ghost GDP is a concept proposed by Citrini, referring to output recorded in national accounts but never circulating in the real economy. If this phenomenon proves true, the real purchasing power of consumers would decline, suppressing demand for risk assets, including cryptocurrencies, leading to a divergence between nominal GDP figures and actual economic activity.

What impact did this AI shock event have on Bitcoin and other crypto assets?

Macroeconomic uncertainty—including AI disruption fears and tariff policies—continues to suppress crypto market sentiment. Since Bitcoin hit a record high of $126,080 in October 2025, it has fallen nearly 50%. Meanwhile, traditional safe-haven assets like gold have continued to strengthen, indicating capital is shifting toward defensive assets.