Analysis: The crypto community's concerns that Iran's cutoff of oil supplies could disrupt the market may be exaggerated.

PANews February 28 News, according to CoinDesk, despite many concerns on social media that Iran might block the Strait of Hormuz to disrupt oil supplies, some experts believe these fears may be exaggerated. The strait is a critical route for about 20% of global oil transportation. Some argue that in the event of direct conflict, oil prices could surge to $120 to $150, triggering inflation shocks and market sell-offs. This conflict has caused tension in the crypto market, which is the only market where investors can express fear and risk during the weekend when traditional markets are closed. However, some analysts point out that a complete blockade of the strait is not in Iran’s interest and is even geographically unlikely.

Economist Daniel Lacalle stated that Iran currently produces 3.3 million barrels of oil per day, and blocking the strait would be like “cutting off its own path.” Additionally, the shipping lanes in the strait are mainly in Omani waters, not Iranian waters, because the water on Iran’s side is too shallow for large oil tankers. Energy market expert Dr. Anas Alhajji said that despite multiple wars, the Strait of Hormuz has never been truly blocked because it is too wide and well protected, making a blockade practically impossible. Overall, the likelihood of Iran blocking the strait and cutting off oil supplies is low. However, full-scale war could still trigger widespread risk aversion, potentially pushing Bitcoin below the key support level of $60,000.