March 4 News: Bitcoin prices have recently rebounded significantly, approaching the $70,000 mark during intraday trading, and currently staying around $68,000. Market data shows that this rally is related to institutional capital inflows and short covering, but overall trading sentiment remains cautious.
Market maker Enflux pointed out in its latest report that this rebound is mainly due to trading position adjustments rather than a clear bullish consensus in the market. Previously, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East triggered risk aversion, leading many traders to establish short positions, with Bitcoin dropping to about $63,000. When the conflict did not quickly escalate into a full-scale regional war affecting Gulf trade routes, some shorts began to close, pushing prices higher rapidly.
Enflux believes that cryptocurrencies tend to react faster than traditional financial markets to geopolitical events. When global uncertainty increases, Bitcoin is often seen as a “pressure release valve” for capital flows, resulting in more volatile short-term fluctuations.
Institutional funds remain a key support for the market. Data shows that over the past five trading days, Bitcoin spot ETF net inflows totaled approximately $1.45 billion, providing crucial liquidity support for prices. Meanwhile, on-chain data also indicates signs of renewed spot demand.
Blockchain data firm Glassnode noted that Bitcoin’s momentum indicators are beginning to recover from previous weakness. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has risen from about 36 to 41, although still below the bullish threshold of 50, signaling some technical improvement.
Spot trading activity has also increased. Data shows Bitcoin spot trading volume rose from about $6.6 billion last week to approximately $9.6 billion, with buy and sell orders gradually balancing out, indicating that selling pressure is easing.
However, the derivatives market remains cautious. Glassnode states that leveraged long positions have seen a significant decrease in holding costs, and the futures market still shows a slight dominance of sellers, suggesting high-leverage traders have not fully turned optimistic.
Market forecasts also reflect similar trends. The probability of Bitcoin falling below $65,000 and $60,000 in the short term has decreased, but most traders have not yet priced in a strong breakout above $80,000. Overall, Bitcoin has gained temporary stability supported by improved institutional funding and spot demand, but market confidence is still in the process of recovery.
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