观点：对比去年8月5日büyük çöplük - should be "büyük düşüş"，本周五日本Merkez Bankası加息对市场冲击较小

CoinWorld news, macro analyst highFree’s view: On Friday (January 24) at 11 am, the Central Bank of Japan (BOJ) will hold an interest rate meeting, and the market generally expects it to raise interest rates, with the priced probability of a rate hike in the futures market already exceeding 90%. Compared with the büyük düşüş in the global market caused by the unexpected rate hike of the BOJ and the weak economic data of the United States on August 5 last year, the impact of this rate hike on the market is expected to be relatively small. The market crash on August 5 last year was mainly due to a sharp weakening of US economic data, which triggered market concerns about an economic recession. At the same time, the unexpected rate hike of the BOJ led to the collapse of arbitrage transactions (Carry Trade), further amplifying market panic. At that time, global stock markets, bond markets, and forex markets were under pressure, and volatility increased. In contrast, the current US economic data is healthy, and the volatility index of US stocks (VIX) also remains stable. In addition, BOJ officials have communicated extensively with the market before, and the expectation of a rate hike has been widely digested, so the market sentiment is more stable. If the market temporarily falls sharply due to unexpected factors, this may become a good opportunity for “Buy the Dip”. The interest rate meeting is expected to be an important node to observe the shift of Japan’s monetary policy, and to verify whether the market’s pricing of the interest rate path is accurate. Investors need to follow the meeting statement and the subsequent market performance to judge future trends.