# 非农数据超预期.

#非农数据超预期.
The Federal Reserve may not cut interest rates early, but it will change its stance in advance
I don’t think the Federal Reserve will immediately cut rates because of this set of non-farm payroll data, but I believe it will change its communication approach ahead of time. Compared to actual actions, a shift in attitude often has a more immediate and direct impact on the market.

The rise in the unemployment rate combined with historically significant downward revisions in employment figures is beginning to loosen the logic of “maintaining high interest rates for longer.” In upcoming

#非农数据超预期.
The trend has emerged, but the market still needs a "confirmation period"
Overall, I believe this set of divergence data leans more towards a trend signal rather than pure noise, but it is not yet sufficient to confirm a policy turning point on its own. Unemployment rate, wages, and previous value revisions have already indicated a direction, but continuous validation from subsequent data is still needed.

The market is currently in a delicate stage: expectations have started to shift, but confidence has not yet been fully established. This will lead to a market performance characte

#非农数据超预期.
This is not single-point noise, but the effect of "slow variables" at work.
On the surface, the November job gains of 64,000 are higher than expected, but a deeper breakdown reveals that the unemployment rate has risen to 4.6%, the previous figure has been significantly revised downward, and wages are slowing down—all pointing in the same direction: the labor market is still expanding, but clearly decelerating. This combination is less like short-term noise and more like a stage signal of long-term trends gradually emerging.

Especially notable is the October employment revision of

The divergence in data itself is exactly the state the Federal Reserve wants to see.
Many people are concerned about whether this set of data is "contradictory," but for the Federal Reserve, this kind of divergence is actually an ideal situation. Moderate job growth avoids recession panic; rising unemployment and slowing wages provide space for policy shifts. This is a typical data structure during a policy window.
Goldman Sachs mentioned short-term factors causing interference, and that's correct, but even after removing short-term disturbances, the trend remains "cooling rather than reboundi