Still optimistic about Bitcoin! Bernstein: This is the weakest bear market in history, with a year-end target of $150,000

Bernstein believes that Bitcoin is only experiencing a confidence correction, with no systemic collapse. ETF and institutional support remain intact, and the long-term target stays at $150,000.

The Weakest Bear Market in History? Bernstein Maintains $150,000 Long-Term Target

Despite recent significant volatility in the cryptocurrency market, renowned investment research and brokerage firm Bernstein remains steadfast in its bullish outlook for Bitcoin in its latest report. Led by analyst Gautam Chhugani, the team points out that the current market adjustment is merely a “confidence crisis,” rather than a fundamental structural breakdown.

The report emphasizes that, unlike previous severe bear markets, the current market has not experienced major platform collapses such as Mt. Gox, Terra-Luna, FTX, or Three Arrows Capital, nor has there been hidden leverage breakdowns or systemic halts.

Analysts even describe this correction as the “weakest bear market case” in the asset’s history. Bernstein believes that the Bitcoin network remains stable, with no signs of large-scale asset liquidations or liquidity freezes. In their view, the main reason for this sell-off is investor loss of confidence in prices, rather than operational pressures. Therefore, the analysts reaffirm their forecast that Bitcoin’s price will reach a high of $150,000 before the end of 2026. Despite recent market turbulence, the net outflow from Bitcoin spot ETFs is only about 7%, indicating that institutional long-term holding strength remains relatively solid.

Institutional Wave Changes the Game, ETF and Political Environment as Strongest Backing

Bernstein points out that the biggest difference from past cycles and history is the “institutional consistency” between Bitcoin and the mainstream financial system. The successful approval and ongoing operation of the US spot Bitcoin ETF provide unprecedented infrastructure support for the market. Analysts predict that once global financial liquidity loosens, the existing ETF framework will quickly absorb new capital inflows. Although the market is currently constrained by extremely tight financial conditions and high interest rates, causing Bitcoin to still be viewed as a liquidity-sensitive risk asset and not yet exhibiting the same safe-haven properties as gold, this merely reflects the current overall economic preferences, not a loss of Bitcoin’s value.

Additionally, the increasingly pro-cryptocurrency political atmosphere in the US, the trend of companies including Bitcoin on their balance sheets, and the continued participation of large asset management firms are core drivers supporting long-term bullishness. The report notes that the current market sentiment seems to be creating crises on its own, with media eager to write obituaries for Bitcoin, but fundamentally “nothing is breaking.” As Bitcoin ETF infrastructure becomes widespread and corporate financing channels mature, once macroeconomic pressures ease, Bitcoin will demonstrate even stronger price recovery capabilities than before.

Deconstructing Market Concerns: Quantum Threats and AI Impact

Furthermore, regarding market fears that quantum computing could crack Bitcoin’s cryptography, Bernstein considers this fear overly premature and misleading. Analysts point out that quantum technology is a long-term challenge faced by all global digital systems, not a unique weakness of Bitcoin.

In fact, Bitcoin has transparent open-source code and an ecosystem composed of well-funded stakeholders, making it fully capable of transitioning to quantum-resistant standards in sync with traditional financial systems in the future.

At the same time, claims that Bitcoin will lose its position in an AI-dominated economy are also dismissed by Bernstein. They believe that blockchain and programmable wallets will play a key role in future autonomous software agent-driven “agent environments,” because these AI agents require a globally compatible, machine-readable, 24/7 operational financial infrastructure—services that traditional banking systems, constrained by outdated architecture and API barriers, cannot easily provide. Bitcoin not only will not be phased out but could become the most important payment infrastructure in future autonomous digital systems.

Strong Corporate Leverage and Miner Diversification Reduce Selling Risks

Another major concern in the market is the leverage risk of companies holding large amounts of Bitcoin and the potential forced selling (Capitulation) by miners due to falling prices. Bernstein’s analysis indicates that leading companies like Strategy, which hold Bitcoin, have properly arranged their debt through long-term preferred shares or structured liabilities, demonstrating strong resilience. According to Strategy CEO Phong Le, only if Bitcoin drops to $8,000 and remains at that low for five years would the company’s balance sheet need restructuring. The likelihood of such extreme scenarios occurring under the current market structure is extremely low.

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Additionally, the operational models of Bitcoin miners are also changing. Many miners have begun shifting their energy resources to support AI data centers, diversifying their business and effectively alleviating operational cost pressures caused by Bitcoin price volatility. In summary, Bernstein believes that the risk of forced liquidations in the current market has been greatly reduced, and recent price declines are merely a “temporary confidence pause.” They expect that as liquidity conditions improve, Bitcoin will restart its upward trend and move toward a new high of $150,000.