This article will analyze the various stages of the BTC bull run, exploring whether the four-year cycle theory is still valid, and how the new market structure affects the future trend of Bitcoin. This article is based on a piece written by EMC Labs and organized, compiled, and authored by PANews. (Previous context: Will Bitcoin peak in Q4? 8 key indicators to watch for signs of a bull run reversal.) (Background information: After reaching a new high, Bitcoin faces resistance again. Is this bull run approaching the "big top"?) According to Coinbase quotes, BTC reached a four-year low of $15,460.00 per coin on November 21, 2022. We consider this day as the end of the previous cycle and the beginning of the current cycle. From that day until September 30 of this year, BTC has been operating in turmoil for 1,044 days, nearing the peaks of the previous two cycles.

The information, views, and judgments regarding markets, projects, coins, etc. mentioned in this report are for reference only and do not constitute any investment advice. The strong trend of the risk equity market has left Wall Street hedge funds astonished, making everyone question what implicit information they may have missed. Following the rebound in April, the three major U.S. stock indices continued to rise strongly, while BTC reached a new all-time high. Behind this, although the "reciprocal tariff war" has eased, there has still been no breakthrough in reaching an agreement, and the "Russia-Ukraine war" remains stuck in a stalemate between negotiations and offensives. But capital inflows are surging, with over 2.7 billion flowing into the BTC Spot ETF channel. Long positions are approaching high levels, while exchange positions continue to decline, indicating a very strong supply and demand situation for BTC. On the policy front, the BTC reserve bill at the state level in the United States has also achieved a historic breakthrough. The stability coin-related "GENIUS ACT" has also passed the Senate vote.

The US-China tariff pause exceeded expectations, leading to a big pump in the US dollar and a possible restart of interest rate cuts. Powell mentioned reviewing the monetary policy framework, stimulating a rise in US stocks and a fall in gold. Concerns over the US debt issue arose, with the enormous debt scale potentially leading to an excessive interest burden. Rating agencies downgraded the US debt rating to Aa1. BTC price fluctuations are influenced by macroeconomic factors, with strong wait-and-see sentiment. EMC Labs continues to follow the development of the Blockchain industry.

The end of the "Russia-Ukraine conflict" will undoubtedly bring significant positive variables to the global economy and financial markets.

Author: 0xWeilan The market, project, currency and other information, opinions and judgments mentioned in this report are for reference only and do not constitute any investment advice. After the issuance of BTC Spot ETF, the correlation between BTC price and US stocks has become increasingly strong. This has been fully reflected in the market since November. On November 5th, Trump was elected as the 47th President of the United States, and the US stock market and BTC simultaneously launched the 'Trump market.' The confidence of all parties in Trump's economic policies was very strong, driving this market to continue to soar until December 18th. On that day, the Federal Reserve made hawkish remarks, suggesting a possible change in monetary policy, and the market expected the number of interest rate cuts in 2025 to be significantly reduced from 4 times to 2 times. Subsequently, both the US stock market and BTC saw significant downward revisions.

This week, BTC has risen above $100,000 twice under psychological support, reaching a high of $104,000. Although there is a need for short-term consolidation and adjustment, both sentiment and funds are effectively supported, unable to affect the price's medium to long-term rise. The inflow of stablecoins and BTC Spot ETF remains high, with funds from the stablecoin channel flowing into Altseason, boosting market sentiment. Dumping has increased slightly but has been absorbed with strong buying support. Cycle indicators are in an upward phase.

The information, opinions and judgments mentioned in this report regarding markets, projects, currencies, etc. are for reference only and do not constitute any investment advice. The cyclical giant wheel is turning, propelling the market, which was recently filled with fear and hesitation, into a new stage, and trading is heating up in this sudden surge of emotion. As predicted in our October report 'Rise by 10.89%, BTC May Reach New High After US Election Chaos': the previous consolidation within the crypto market has been completed, and this month welcomes an external trigger - the end of the US presidential election on November 6th, with the Republican candidate Trump, who holds a friendly attitude towards Crypto, winning. The price of BTC continues to hit new highs, approaching $100,000. The settlement of this annual major event has gradually brought traders in various financial markets out of chaos and uncertainty, returning to the established trading rhythm, and the US stock market has resumed pumping. The expectation of 'Trump economic policy' has become the main trading focus, with TSL and MicroStrategy being the stocks with the highest increase. B

Author: 0xWeilan, Source: EMC

Writing

This week, BTC returned to the rising trend line and started the second half of the bull market. Influenced by the settlement of the U.S. election and the increase in liquidity during the interest rate cycle, the U.S. stock market is likely to continue to pump. The capital in the encryption market has reached 6.504 billion U.S. dollars, the largest inflow week in 2024, and the significant inflow of funds through the Stable Coin channel has brought support to BTC and other coins. The EMC BTC Cycle Metrics indicator is 0.875, and the market is in the rising period. The BTC price may continue to rise without being suppressed by technical indicators.

 The information, opinions, and judgments regarding the market, projects, currencies, etc. mentioned in this report are for reference only and do not constitute any investment advice. Global macro finance reaches a turning point in turmoil in 2024. Accompanied by September 50

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 The information, opinions and judgments mentioned in this report regarding markets, projects, currencies, etc. are for reference only and do not constitute any investment advice. On September 18th, the Federal Reserve initiated an interest rate cut cycle, with an initial rate cut of 50 basis points. This marks the year 2022 as the start of a new era.

The internal structure of the market is fully adjusted, and whether the US economy can become a core influencing factor for soft landing is essential.

Written by: 0xWeilan, Source: EMC Labs The information, opinions and judgments mentioned in this report, including markets, projects, currencies, etc., are for reference only and do not constitute any investment advice. The encryption asset market after March 2024 seems to be passively falling into a second-rate performance with the theme of 'waiting'. All actors, creators, and producers seem to have forgotten about the plot, scenes, and original theme, just waiting for some 'audience' to get on board, and whether there will be a hurricane tonight. From mid-March to the end of August, over a span of more than 5 months, the price of BTC has been fluctuating in the 'new high consolidation zone'. During this period, the global market has experienced inflation fluctuations and downturns, ambiguous and clear expectations of a US interest rate cut, speculations about whether there will be a soft landing or hard landing for the economy, as well as intense market volatility triggered by the adjustment of positions by different investors due to trend changes. In this context, some BTC investors in the encryption market

Author: 0xWeilan, EMC Labs The global financial markets remained calm in March. The Nasdaq and Dow Jones indices both hit new highs Rebound without suspense. At this point, the Nasdaq has been pumping for 5 consecutive months, indicating that Long capital is constantly increasing its tolerance for the delay in US interest rate cuts. There are many factors that have led to the delay in interest rate cuts. US CPI rebounded slightly from 3.1% to 3.2% on a month-on-month basis, and the US manufacturing index PMI rebounded to 50.3%, showing signs of entering an expansionary period. Japan raised interest rates for the first time after ending an eight-year era of negative interest rates. The probability of a rate cut in April in the United States has fallen significantly, and the probability of a rate cut in May has also fallen to below 50%. US Treasury Interest Scale (US Bank Mapping) The accumulation of capital returning to the United States simultaneously boosts equity and safe-haven markets. The United States cut interest rates, and the macro financial system entered a loose period, and the equity market and encryption market entered a new round of pump cycle. To sell off for a long time

The drop this week once again broke through the 200-day moving average of BTC, but also attracted a large amount of bottom-fishing funds. It is believed that BTC is still in a high-level oscillation zone and is accumulating power for the Bull Market in the next year.

In July, the capital inflow is reversing the trend of the past two months, compounded by factors such as US interest rate cuts and elections. BTC has once again entered a strong channel.

After the COVID-19 crisis, the United States seems to be turning the 'story' of harvesting other economies in a 'tidal wave of dollars' using the status of the US dollar as the world's largest reserve currency into reality. All economies are under pressure, and the yen to dollar exchange rate has fallen to its lowest level since 1986. On June 5th, Canada cut interest rates, and on June 6th, the euro cut interest rates. Why hasn't the Federal Reserve cut interest rates? - Because only the Japanese yen Exchange Rate has collapsed, it is still hungry. Europe can't hold on, Canada can't hold on, only the United States can hold on. The continuous pump of the US dollar index puts enormous pressure on the equity market. Under the immense pressure of macro finance, the encryption asset market in June ended with a 7.12% Rebound from the May decline, and continued the Depth consolidation after BTC hit a historical high. This consolidation has lasted for nearly 4,.

This week, BTC oscillated between $60,000 and $70,000, and short-term liquidation has begun. Every external factor is important, but the core reason is that the entire market is still paying off the debt of the early arrival of the historical high. The inflow of stablecoins in USD reached $708 million, with USDT and USDC in sync, and the total trading volume decreased. The on-chain data of BTC continues to be sluggish, with the EMC BTC Cycle index at 0.125, indicating that the market has once again entered a bull market dormancy period.

The BTC chip accumulation range has been further clarified to be $66,000 to $70,000, forming an accumulation of 2.43 million chips; American ETFs had a net inflow of $887 million in a single day, the second largest net inflow since January; stablecoin inflows are relatively stable, with a net inflow of only $270 million, but overall it exceeds the last bull market; the market is in an accelerated period of the bull market, with the EMC BTC cycle index strength at 0.63. If the interest rate cut expectation is clear, the market breakthrough may only need to wait.

"The information, opinions, and judgments mentioned in this report regarding markets, projects, currencies, etc. are for reference only and do not constitute any investment advice."  Market Summary: Last week, BTC continued the rebound trend, with a low of $66,060 and a high of $71,979, approaching the all-time high of $73,777 in March, with a final increase of 3.37% and a fluctuation of 8.93%. The rebound in the past 7 days mainly came from the US SEC's approval of ETH spot ETF.

 The information, opinions and judgments on markets, projects, currencies, etc. mentioned in this report are for reference only and do not constitute any investment advice. When the United States and Hong Kong approved BTC ETFs one after another, and we cheered for the integration of DeFi and TradFI, we did not realize that Crypto

! [EMC Labs Bitcoin Weekly Observation: Nearly 8 Weeks After Correction, Market May Be About to Give Choice] (https://piccdn.0daily.com/202404/29091507/ysdu9me39tuyjiss.png!webp) \The information, opinions and judgments on the market, projects, coins and other markets mentioned in this report are for reference only and do not constitute any investment advice. Market Summary: On 26 April, a series of economic data released in the US continued to suggest the risk of persistent inflation, with the consensus expectation that a rate cut in 2024 would be delayed until Q4. As a result, the dollar index rebounded sharply. Naturally, Bitcoin, which is strongly and negatively correlated with the US dollar, quickly retreated in 2 days. Last week, after fall broke the $60,000 mark, Bitcoin quickly Rebound to $67,000, but finally fell back after holding on for 1 week

 The information, opinions and judgments on markets, projects, currencies, etc. mentioned in this report are for reference only and do not constitute any investment advice. Global financial markets were relatively calm in March. The Nasdaq and Dow Jones indexes both hit new highs without any suspense. The Nasdaq has risen for 5 consecutive months, indicating that long capital is continuously increasing its tolerance for the delay of the US interest rate cut. There are many factors that have led to the delay in interest rate cuts. The US CPI rebounded slightly from 3.1% to 3.2% month-on-month, and the US manufacturing index PMI rebounded to 50.3%.

Author: NingNing, Senior Researcher, EMC Fund Source: X @0xNing0x 1. Blast's current state is just a pure scoreboard, and the official website does not even have technical documentation, even if the Blast mainnet is successfully deployed in February 24, it will be widely questioned and criticized by the Ethereum community because the ultimate security of assets is not guaranteed by the Ethereum mainnet. 2. There are two core logics of Blast's sudden popularity:1. Bubble up for Blur's old integral plate;2. Provide an opportunity for giant whales to get on the bus; 3. The nature of the Blast airdrop is not a "black slave" revolution, but a capitalist carnival. In the past, the biggest beneficiaries of L2 airdrops were ordinary wool parties and wool studios. The biggest beneficiaries of the Blast airdrop will be whales and community leaders; 4. We can create...

Author: NingNing, Senior Researcher, EMC Fund Source: X @0xNing0x 1. Blast's current state is just a pure scoreboard, and the official website does not even have technical documentation, even if the Blast mainnet is successfully deployed in February 24, it will be widely questioned and criticized by the Ethereum community because the ultimate security of assets is not guaranteed by the Ethereum mainnet. 2. There are two core logics of Blast's sudden popularity:1. Bubble up for Blur's old integral plate;2. Provide an opportunity for giant whales to get on the bus; 3. The nature of the Blast airdrop is not a "black slave" revolution, but a capitalist carnival. In the past, the biggest beneficiaries of L2 airdrops were ordinary wool parties and wool studios. The biggest beneficiaries of the Blast airdrop will be whales and community leaders; 4. We can create...

The active state of the data on the chain shows that there is a possibility of rapid and large-scale explosion of BTC in the short to medium term, and the probability is not low.